Sat, Apr 1, 2017·Joe Louis Arena, Detroit
Toronto Maple Leafs 5, Detroit Red Wings 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 09 | 311 | 27 | 527 |
| DET | 116 | 112 | 214 | 442 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:50DETGustav NyquistAssists: Frans Nielsen, Nick Jensen · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–1
- P2 2:56TORAuston MatthewsPPAssists: Leo Komarov, Nikita Zaitsev · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–1
- P2 13:53TORMitch MarnerAssists: Connor Carrick · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–1
- P2 15:08TORWilliam NylanderAssists: Auston Matthews, Roman Polak · Wrist, 0.08 xG3–1
- P2 16:42DETNick JensenAssists: Henrik Zetterberg · Wrist, 0.36 xG3–2
- P3 14:41DETNiklas KronwallAssists: Henrik Zetterberg, Gustav Nyquist · Snap, 0.14 xG3–3
- P3 17:34TORJames van RiemsdykAssists: Nazem Kadri, Jake Gardiner · Backhand, 0.10 xG4–3
- P3 18:51TORAuston MatthewsGWGAssists: Brian Boyle · Wrist, 0.21 xG5–3
- P3 19:15DETMike GreenAssists: Dylan Larkin, Darren Helm · Wrist, 0.09 xG5–4
Penalties (4)
- P1 8:16TORTyler Bozak: High sticking double minor4 min
- P1 9:36DETGustav Nyquist: Slashing2 min
- P2 1:31DETNiklas Kronwall: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 11:19TORNazem Kadri: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kadri won the faceoff against Nielsen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestBoyle – Martin – Kapanen9:01
xG 0.44–0.10 (82%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
- van Riemsdyk – Bozak – Marner11:57
xG 0.47–0.63 (43%)attempts 11–14goals 0–0
- Komarov – Kadri – Brown11:41
xG 0.18–0.39 (32%)attempts 9–13goals 0–0
- Hyman – Nylander – Matthews11:05
xG 0.24–0.94 (20%)attempts 7–12goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- bestRielly – Carrick11:00
xG 0.42–0.24 (63%)attempts 10–9goals 1–1
- Polak – Rielly4:26
xG 0.16–0.09 (66%)attempts 2–4goals 1–0
- Gardiner – Carrick2:06
xG 0.00–0.06 (0%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestZetterberg – Nyquist – Tatar15:20
xG 1.02–0.68 (60%)attempts 15–17goals 2–2
- Nielsen – Helm – Sheahan12:11
xG 0.42–0.23 (65%)attempts 15–9goals 0–1
- Miller – Street – Nosek4:48
xG 0.29–0.21 (58%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Abdelkader – Athanasiou – Larkin8:48
xG 0.18–0.38 (32%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJensen – DeKeyser18:33
xG 1.18–0.68 (63%)attempts 24–16goals 2–2
- Kronwall – Green16:21
xG 0.74–0.58 (56%)attempts 15–13goals 1–2
- Russo – Ouellet11:07
xG 0.24–0.55 (30%)attempts 5–12goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).