Sun, Apr 2, 2017·Amalie Arena, Tampa
Dallas Stars 3, Tampa Bay Lightning 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 73% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 09 | 27 | 110 | 326 |
| TBL | 18 | 16 | 411 | 625 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:27TBLAdam ErneAssists: Yanni Gourde, Andrej Sustr · Wrist, 0.15 xG0–1
- P2 1:49DALGemel SmithAssists: Esa Lindell, Jason Spezza · Tip-in, 0.08 xG1–1
- P2 10:57DALJason SpezzaAssists: John Klingberg, Esa Lindell · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–1
- P2 19:42TBLBraydon CoburnAssists: Anton Stralman, Ondrej Palat · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–2
- P3 5:43TBLBrayden PointAssists: Jake Dotchin, Ondrej Palat · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–3
- P3 13:27TBLOndrej PalatPPGWGAssists: Jonathan Drouin, Nikita Kucherov · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–4
- P3 14:37TBLAdam ErneAssists: Vladislav Namestnikov, Tyler Johnson · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–5
- P3 16:40DALBrett RitchieAssists: Esa Lindell, Devin Shore · Backhand, 0.22 xG3–5
- P3 19:58TBLAnton StralmanENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.45 xG3–6
Penalties (5)
- P2 4:10DALDan Hamhuis: Holding2 min
- P3 11:26DALRadek Faksa: Tripping2 min
- P3 11:26TBLVladislav Namestnikov: Embellishment2 min
- P3 12:12DALRemi Elie: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 14:40TBLYanni Gourde: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Point won the faceoff against Eakin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestCracknell – Dowling – Dickinson11:05
xG 0.30–0.13 (70%)attempts 15–4goals 0–0
- Benn – Seguin – Shore2:00
xG 0.01–0.14 (6%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Seguin – Ritchie – Elie8:40
xG 0.07–0.23 (22%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
- Benn – Eakin – Shore10:25
xG 0.06–0.31 (17%)attempts 5–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLindell – Honka3:54
xG 0.11–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 1–0
- Hamhuis – Pateryn12:51
xG 0.36–0.43 (46%)attempts 15–13goals 0–1
- Hamhuis – Klingberg3:27
xG 0.05–0.13 (25%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestPalat – Kucherov – Point14:54
xG 0.67–0.16 (81%)attempts 15–10goals 1–0
- Namestnikov – Gourde – Erne6:01
xG 0.27–0.00 (100%)attempts 8–1goals 1–0
- Johnson – Namestnikov – Erne4:11
xG 0.22–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 1–0
- Killorn – Gourde – Drouin3:40
xG 0.15–0.03 (86%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHedman – Dotchin14:03
xG 0.49–0.16 (75%)attempts 15–10goals 0–0
- Coburn – Sustr8:10
xG 0.33–0.12 (73%)attempts 9–3goals 1–1
- Stralman – Garrison7:35
xG 0.18–0.05 (78%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 73% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).