Thu, Apr 6, 2017·Air Canada Centre, Toronto
Tampa Bay Lightning 4, Toronto Maple Leafs 1
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 50% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 013 | 210 | 27 | 430 |
| TOR | 011 | 111 | 05 | 127 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 7:34TBLBrayden PointPPAssists: Ondrej Palat, Victor Hedman · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–0
- P2 9:42TORNazem KadriAssists: Matt Hunwick, Tyler Bozak · Tip-in, 0.13 xG1–1
- P2 11:50TBLNikita KucherovGWGAssists: Victor Hedman · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–1
- P3 2:00TBLMichael BournivalAssists: Andrej Sustr, Victor Hedman · Wrist, 0.22 xG3–1
- P3 14:11TBLBrayden PointAssists: Ondrej Palat, Jake Dotchin · Snap, 0.07 xG4–1
Penalties (10)
- P1 7:31TORZach Hyman: Tripping2 min
- P1 12:21TBLAndrej Sustr: Hooking2 min
- P1 14:13TBLAnton Stralman: Tripping2 min
- P2 2:09TBLBraydon Coburn: Interference2 min
- P2 4:55TBLBraydon Coburn: Fighting5 min
- P2 4:55TORMatt Martin: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P2 6:37TORRoman Polak: Interference2 min
- P3 13:12TORTyler Bozak: Roughing2 min
- P3 13:12TBLNikita Kucherov: Cross checking2 min
- P3 17:32TORMatt Martin: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Point won the faceoff against Kadri
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestDumont – McKegg – Bournival8:39
xG 0.40–0.19 (67%)attempts 5–10goals 1–0
- Palat – Kucherov – Point14:10
xG 0.65–0.51 (56%)attempts 17–17goals 1–1
- Namestnikov – Erne – Drouin9:58
xG 0.29–0.18 (61%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
- Killorn – Conacher – Gourde7:41
xG 0.28–0.20 (58%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHedman – Sustr2:47
xG 0.57–0.23 (71%)attempts 8–3goals 2–0
- Hedman – Dotchin13:18
xG 0.70–0.48 (59%)attempts 15–13goals 0–1
- Stralman – Hedman5:17
xG 0.16–0.07 (68%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestHyman – Nylander – Matthews11:17
xG 0.84–0.51 (62%)attempts 20–12goals 0–0
- Boyle – Martin – Kapanen6:36
xG 0.08–0.22 (27%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- van Riemsdyk – Bozak – Marner12:37
xG 0.09–0.36 (21%)attempts 12–6goals 0–1
- Komarov – Kadri – Brown9:26
xG 0.30–0.68 (31%)attempts 10–14goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestPolak – Hunwick9:53
xG 0.54–0.33 (62%)attempts 11–11goals 0–0
- Hunwick – Rielly2:31
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Gardiner – Zaitsev15:50
xG 0.70–0.70 (50%)attempts 17–17goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 50% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).