Sat, Apr 8, 2017·Joe Louis Arena, Detroit
Montréal Canadiens 3, Detroit Red Wings 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 010 | 211 | 05 | 14 | 330 |
| DET | 113 | 17 | 06 | 01 | 227 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:44DETFrans NielsenAssists: Darren Helm · Backhand, 0.10 xG0–1
- P2 4:19MTLNathan BeaulieuPPAssists: Paul Byron, Brendan Gallagher · Slap, 0.05 xG1–1
- P2 12:51DETDylan LarkinAssists: Tomas Tatar, Matt Lorito · Slap, 0.06 xG1–2
- P2 18:30MTLArtturi LehkonenAssists: Nikita Nesterov · Wrist, 0.38 xG2–2
- OT 1:42MTLAlex GalchenyukGWGAssists: Nikita Nesterov · Slap, 0.14 xG3–2
Penalties (1)
- P2 3:26DETDanny DeKeyser: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Shaw won the faceoff against Nielsen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestByron – Gallagher – Danault14:06
xG 0.70–0.15 (82%)attempts 15–4goals 0–0
- King – Shaw – Lehkonen13:28
xG 0.62–0.16 (79%)attempts 13–6goals 1–0
- Mitchell – Flynn – McCarron12:01
xG 0.21–0.28 (42%)attempts 7–8goals 0–1
- Ott – Galchenyuk – Martinsen12:48
xG 0.32–1.18 (21%)attempts 3–19goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBeaulieu – Lernout21:59
xG 0.64–0.41 (61%)attempts 14–13goals 0–0
- Petry – Davidson15:58
xG 0.45–0.28 (62%)attempts 14–9goals 0–1
- Nesterov – Sergachev14:54
xG 0.93–0.95 (49%)attempts 11–15goals 1–1
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestMiller – Street – Nosek9:52
xG 0.66–0.44 (60%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Zetterberg – Nyquist – Tatar16:15
xG 0.38–0.35 (52%)attempts 12–11goals 0–0
- Abdelkader – Larkin – Lorito12:04
xG 0.30–0.38 (44%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Nielsen – Helm – Sheahan12:58
xG 0.47–0.73 (39%)attempts 11–12goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestKronwall – Green19:26
xG 0.68–0.05 (93%)attempts 16–9goals 0–0
- Jensen – DeKeyser17:37
xG 0.68–0.60 (53%)attempts 11–15goals 1–0
- Green – Ouellet2:00
xG 0.09–0.09 (48%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).