Thu, Oct 5, 2017·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
Montréal Canadiens 3, Buffalo Sabres 2 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 117 | 010 | 110 | 03 | 1 | 340 |
| BUF | 111 | 118 | 012 | 04 | 0 | 245 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:30BUFJason PominvillePPAssists: Seth Griffith · Backhand, 0.11 xG0–1
- P1 17:56MTLMax PaciorettyAssists: Jonathan Drouin, Brendan Gallagher · Snap, 0.07 xG1–1
- P2 0:22BUFJason PominvilleAssists: Jack Eichel, Evander Kane · Slap, 0.10 xG1–2
- P3 8:01MTLPhillip DanaultSHAssists: Shea Weber, Karl Alzner · Wrap-around, 0.05 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. BUF Jacob Josefson stopped
- 2. MTL Paul Byron stopped
- 3. BUF Jason Pominville stopped
- 4. MTL Jonathan Drouin scored
- 5. BUF Sam Reinhart stopped
Penalties (9)
- P1 2:29BUFEvander Kane: Delaying game bench face off violation2 min
- P1 4:48MTLAles Hemsky: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 6:48MTLTomas Plekanec: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 6:09BUFEvander Kane: Slashing2 min
- P2 10:56MTLAles Hemsky: Slashing2 min
- P2 11:39MTLMax Pacioretty: Interference2 min
- P2 16:56BUFJack Eichel: Roughing2 min
- P3 7:19MTLAndrew Shaw: Interference2 min
- P3 14:20BUFSeth Griffith: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Plekanec won the faceoff against Eichel
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestPacioretty – Gallagher – Drouin8:57
xG 0.72–0.27 (72%)attempts 12–9goals 1–0
- Hemsky – Byron – de la Rose6:33
xG 0.24–0.05 (83%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Plekanec – Hudon – Lehkonen7:59
xG 0.51–0.37 (58%)attempts 12–7goals 0–1
- Shaw – Danault – Galchenyuk10:43
xG 0.09–0.22 (29%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPetry – Alzner12:25
xG 0.69–0.46 (60%)attempts 12–11goals 0–1
- Weber – Mete11:20
xG 0.36–0.27 (57%)attempts 5–11goals 0–0
- Weber – Benn3:45
xG 0.08–0.01 (87%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestGriffith – Girgensons – Reinhart8:46
xG 0.61–0.07 (90%)attempts 12–3goals 0–0
- Pouliot – Okposo – O'Reilly9:52
xG 0.44–0.48 (48%)attempts 11–11goals 0–1
- Josefson – Nolan – Larsson7:56
xG 0.04–0.22 (14%)attempts 1–8goals 0–0
- Pominville – Kane – Eichel10:30
xG 0.47–0.73 (39%)attempts 14–13goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestMcCabe – Ristolainen2:09
xG 0.37–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Beaulieu – Ristolainen13:39
xG 0.77–0.62 (55%)attempts 18–16goals 1–0
- McCabe – Antipin9:37
xG 0.09–0.05 (66%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).