Tue, Oct 10, 2017·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Ottawa Senators 3, Vancouver Canucks 2 (SO)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 111 | 015 | 114 | 02 | 2 | 342 |
| VAN | 18 | 18 | 010 | 02 | 1 | 228 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:08OTTCody CeciAssists: Kyle Turris, Zack Smith · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–0
- P1 7:03VANChris TanevAssists: Henrik Sedin, Daniel Sedin · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–1
- P2 14:28VANThomas VanekAssists: Troy Stecher, Henrik Sedin · Wrist, 0.00 xG1–2
- P3 5:09OTTRyan DzingelAssists: Bobby Ryan, Jean-Gabriel Pageau · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. VAN Markus Granlund scored
- 2. OTT Bobby Ryan stopped
- 3. VAN Thomas Vanek stopped
- 4. OTT Alexandre Burrows stopped
- 5. VAN Bo Horvat stopped
- 6. OTT Kyle Turris scored
- 7. VAN Brandon Sutter stopped
- 8. OTT Tom Pyatt stopped
- 9. VAN Sam Gagner stopped
- 10. OTT Mark Stone scored
Penalties (7)
- P1 10:36OTTDerick Brassard: Slashing2 min
- P1 13:11OTTChris Wideman: Holding2 min
- P1 13:31VANThomas Vanek: Slashing2 min
- P1 15:47VANDerek Dorsett: High sticking double minor4 min
- P2 7:28OTTChris Wideman: Tripping2 min
- P2 8:28VANSven Baertschi: Slashing2 min
- P3 7:53OTTCraig Anderson: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Horvat won the faceoff against Thompson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestRyan – Brassard – Stone6:18
xG 0.74–0.07 (91%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0
- Brassard – Smith – Stone3:28
xG 0.29–0.04 (88%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Ryan – Dzingel – Pageau3:52
xG 0.32–0.08 (80%)attempts 6–4goals 1–0
- Burrows – Thompson – Pyatt2:45
xG 0.12–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBorowiecki – Ceci4:01
xG 0.70–0.12 (86%)attempts 9–3goals 0–1
- Claesson – Chabot2:49
xG 0.23–0.07 (78%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Phaneuf – Borowiecki4:27
xG 0.21–0.05 (81%)attempts 6–3goals 0–1
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestSedin – Sedin – Vanek8:00
xG 0.24–0.15 (62%)attempts 9–3goals 2–2
- Eriksson – Baertschi – Horvat10:37
xG 0.48–0.53 (48%)attempts 8–12goals 0–0
- Gagner – Burmistrov – Virtanen8:38
xG 0.14–0.30 (32%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
- Dorsett – Sutter – Granlund11:35
xG 0.24–0.62 (28%)attempts 7–14goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Hutton – Stecher12:31
xG 0.52–0.67 (44%)attempts 12–12goals 1–1
- Del Zotto – Gudbranson17:01
xG 0.36–0.65 (36%)attempts 14–18goals 0–0
- Edler – Tanev13:44
xG 0.24–0.74 (25%)attempts 8–14goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).