Thu, Oct 12, 2017·Gila River Arena, Glendale
Detroit Red Wings 4, Arizona Coyotes 2
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Arizona Coyotes win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 09 | 214 | 210 | 433 |
| ARI | 011 | 210 | 014 | 235 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 6:12ARIClayton KellerPPAssists: Derek Stepan, Max Domi · Wrist, 0.36 xG0–1
- P2 11:37DETMartin FrkPPAssists: Mike Green · Slap, 0.04 xG1–1
- P2 18:16ARIClayton KellerAssists: Max Domi, Oliver Ekman-Larsson · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–2
- P2 19:18DETHenrik ZetterbergAssists: Dylan Larkin, Mike Green · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–2
- P3 16:36DETLuke GlendeningSHGWGAssists: Dylan Larkin, Jimmy Howard · Wrist, 0.11 xG3–2
- P3 18:26DETFrans NielsenENAssists: Darren Helm, Jonathan Ericsson · Wrist, 0.53 xG4–2
Penalties (11)
- P1 4:37DETDarren Helm: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 11:11DETJimmy Howard: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 11:41DETDylan Larkin: Hooking2 min
- P1 19:19DETHenrik Zetterberg: Slashing2 min
- P1 19:55ARIOliver Ekman-Larsson: Cross checking2 min
- P2 5:20DETRiley Sheahan: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P2 10:48ARIDerek Stepan: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 3:28ARILawson Crouse: Fighting5 min
- P3 3:28DETNick Jensen: Fighting5 min
- P3 7:51ARIJordan Martinook: Interference2 min
- P3 14:50DETFrans Nielsen: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Dvorak won the faceoff against Larkin
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestAbdelkader – Mantha – Larkin9:22
xG 0.44–0.14 (76%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Nielsen – Helm – Frk8:29
xG 0.40–0.30 (57%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Booth – Sheahan – Glendening3:19
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Zetterberg – Nyquist – Tatar11:44
xG 0.25–0.35 (41%)attempts 9–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDaley – Ericsson13:16
xG 0.82–0.24 (77%)attempts 15–12goals 1–0
- Green – Ouellet2:36
xG 0.07–0.12 (35%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Kronwall – Green14:45
xG 0.51–0.68 (43%)attempts 10–15goals 0–0
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestStepan – Domi – Keller12:49
xG 0.66–0.54 (55%)attempts 18–12goals 1–0
- Kempe – Cousins – Duclair7:05
xG 0.40–0.28 (59%)attempts 9–6goals 0–1
- Dvorak – Fischer – Crouse7:26
xG 0.15–0.32 (32%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Richardson – Rieder – Martinook10:04
xG 0.03–0.37 (6%)attempts 4–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHjalmarsson – Demers15:29
xG 0.51–0.19 (73%)attempts 12–8goals 1–0
- Goligoski – Schenn9:41
xG 0.55–0.55 (50%)attempts 12–14goals 0–0
- Goligoski – Ekman-Larsson4:17
xG 0.07–0.27 (22%)attempts 4–3goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ARI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ARI is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Arizona Coyotes win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ARI − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).