Thu, Oct 19, 2017·Gila River Arena, Glendale
Dallas Stars 5, Arizona Coyotes 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 210 | 013 | 38 | 531 |
| ARI | 112 | 110 | 29 | 431 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:50ARIDerek StepanAssists: Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Clayton Keller · Slap, 0.04 xG0–1
- P1 6:23DALJamie BennPPUnassisted · Wrist, 0.26 xG1–1
- P1 7:04DALRadek FaksaAssists: Tyler Pitlick · Deflected, 0.18 xG2–1
- P2 2:47ARIDerek StepanAssists: Max Domi, Jason Demers · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–2
- P3 3:10DALStephen JohnsUnassisted · Wrist, 0.02 xG3–2
- P3 6:41ARIClayton KellerUnassisted · Wrist, 0.20 xG3–3
- P3 8:20DALTyler SeguinAssists: Jamie Benn, John Klingberg · Wrist, 0.20 xG4–3
- P3 17:06DALTyler SeguinGWGAssists: Jamie Benn, John Klingberg · Slap, 0.03 xG5–3
- P3 19:38ARIClayton KellerAssists: Christian Dvorak, Derek Stepan · Backhand, 0.16 xG5–4
Penalties (6)
- P1 3:00DALJamie Oleksiak: Holding2 min
- P1 6:15ARIClayton Keller: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 15:12DALMarc Methot: Hooking2 min
- P1 19:46ARIJason Demers: Slashing2 min
- P2 12:39DALBrett Ritchie: Hooking2 min
- P3 9:22DALRemi Elie: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Dvorak won the faceoff against Hanzal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestRadulov – Benn – Seguin11:48
xG 0.57–0.17 (77%)attempts 18–5goals 2–0
- Spezza – Shore – Janmark10:04
xG 0.64–0.28 (69%)attempts 14–8goals 0–0
- Roussel – Pitlick – Faksa8:29
xG 0.20–0.34 (36%)attempts 4–11goals 0–1
- Hanzal – Ritchie – Elie8:27
xG 0.22–0.68 (24%)attempts 7–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHamhuis – Johns13:09
xG 0.56–0.39 (59%)attempts 17–9goals 1–1
- Klingberg – Lindell15:27
xG 0.62–0.55 (53%)attempts 14–14goals 1–0
- Methot – Johns2:10
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestKempe – Rinaldo – Duclair5:37
xG 0.33–0.08 (81%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Cousins – Fischer – Crouse5:27
xG 0.17–0.16 (52%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Stepan – Domi – Keller10:38
xG 0.93–0.92 (50%)attempts 16–16goals 2–2
- Kempe – Rieder – Dvorak2:10
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDemers – Ekman-Larsson15:28
xG 1.01–0.30 (77%)attempts 21–6goals 2–2
- Schenn – Connauton12:22
xG 0.59–0.59 (50%)attempts 8–13goals 1–1
- Goligoski – Hjalmarsson16:11
xG 0.11–0.89 (11%)attempts 5–21goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ARI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ARI is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Dallas Stars win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ARI − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).