Tue, Oct 24, 2017·PNC Arena, Raleigh
Tampa Bay Lightning 5, Carolina Hurricanes 1
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 80% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 110 | 110 | 39 | 529 |
| CAR | 08 | 011 | 113 | 132 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 19:25TBLTyler JohnsonPPAssists: Ondrej Palat, Brayden Point · Wrist, 0.21 xG1–0
- P2 9:13TBLMikhail SergachevGWGAssists: Steven Stamkos, Tyler Johnson · Snap, 0.04 xG2–0
- P3 3:28CARJaccob SlavinAssists: Brett Pesce, Josh Jooris · Snap, 0.03 xG2–1
- P3 17:27TBLVladislav NamestnikovENAssists: Victor Hedman, Jake Dotchin · Wrist, 0.66 xG3–1
- P3 18:39TBLRyan CallahanENAssists: Chris Kunitz, JT Brown · Wrist, 0.73 xG4–1
- P3 19:56TBLNikita KucherovAssists: Steven Stamkos, Braydon Coburn · Wrist, 0.17 xG5–1
Penalties (7)
- P1 2:19TBLChris Kunitz: Holding2 min
- P1 9:30TBLAndrej Sustr: Holding2 min
- P1 17:30CARJustin Williams: Holding2 min · PPG
- P2 0:20TBLVictor Hedman: Slashing2 min
- P2 16:17CARJustin Williams: Roughing2 min
- P2 16:17TBLVictor Hedman: Roughing2 min
- P3 0:33TBLSteven Stamkos: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Point won the faceoff against Kruger
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestKillorn – Johnson – Gourde3:26
xG 0.16–0.09 (64%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Palat – Kucherov – Point2:22
xG 0.17–0.14 (56%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Stamkos – Kucherov – Namestnikov11:48
xG 0.62–0.62 (50%)attempts 7–20goals 1–0
- Kunitz – Callahan – Brown9:08
xG 0.11–0.14 (44%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGirardi – Sergachev3:12
xG 0.55–0.08 (87%)attempts 7–4goals 1–0
- Hedman – Sustr4:16
xG 0.31–0.43 (42%)attempts 4–6goals 0–1
- Coburn – Girardi6:52
xG 0.00–0.19 (0%)attempts 0–7goals 0–0
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestStaal – Lindholm – Aho11:48
xG 0.66–0.40 (62%)attempts 19–7goals 0–0
- Kruger – Nordstrom – Jooris7:32
xG 0.66–0.53 (55%)attempts 10–8goals 1–0
- Williams – Skinner – Ryan11:25
xG 0.61–0.55 (53%)attempts 13–7goals 0–1
- Rask – Teravainen – McGinn8:30
xG 0.32–0.34 (48%)attempts 14–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSlavin – Pesce16:06
xG 0.96–0.68 (59%)attempts 25–9goals 1–0
- Faulk – Hanifin13:29
xG 0.58–0.34 (63%)attempts 16–11goals 0–0
- van Riemsdyk – Fleury11:58
xG 0.60–0.63 (49%)attempts 11–11goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 80% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).