Thu, Oct 26, 2017·Air Canada Centre, Toronto
Carolina Hurricanes 6, Toronto Maple Leafs 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 316 | 111 | 211 | 638 |
| TOR | 115 | 212 | 07 | 334 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:20CARJosh JoorisAssists: Trevor van Riemsdyk, Joakim Nordstrom · Slap, 0.04 xG1–0
- P1 2:53CARTeuvo TeravainenAssists: Victor Rask · Snap, 0.16 xG2–0
- P1 9:19TORAuston MatthewsAssists: Patrick Marleau · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–1
- P1 16:08CARElias LindholmAssists: Sebastian Aho, Haydn Fleury · Tip-in, 0.08 xG3–1
- P2 5:47TORDominic MooreAssists: Matt Martin, Morgan Rielly · Backhand, 0.15 xG3–2
- P2 7:11TORZach HymanAssists: Jake Gardiner, Auston Matthews · Backhand, 0.09 xG3–3
- P2 13:37CARVictor RaskGWGAssists: Teuvo Teravainen · Snap, 0.11 xG4–3
- P3 10:15CARBrock McGinnAssists: Haydn Fleury, Teuvo Teravainen · Snap, 0.06 xG5–3
- P3 12:19CARJosh JoorisAssists: Jeff Skinner · Wrist, 0.08 xG6–3
Penalties (5)
- P1 12:30CARDerek Ryan: Slashing2 min
- P3 3:53CARBrett Pesce: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 3:53TORNazem Kadri: Delaying game bench face off violation2 min
- P3 18:21TORZach Hyman: Tripping2 min
- P3 18:37CARJordan Staal: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Kadri
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestRask – Teravainen – McGinn11:19
xG 0.87–0.41 (68%)attempts 13–11goals 2–0
- Williams – Skinner – Ryan13:26
xG 0.98–0.57 (63%)attempts 24–12goals 0–1
- Staal – Lindholm – Aho13:28
xG 0.72–0.50 (59%)attempts 17–16goals 1–0
- Kruger – Nordstrom – Jooris7:42
xG 0.13–0.78 (14%)attempts 7–10goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestFaulk – Hanifin16:41
xG 1.17–0.79 (60%)attempts 29–14goals 0–1
- van Riemsdyk – Fleury10:27
xG 0.61–0.44 (58%)attempts 12–11goals 4–0
- Slavin – Pesce17:28
xG 1.00–0.94 (52%)attempts 18–19goals 2–2
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestMoore – Martin – Marner4:37
xG 0.45–0.15 (75%)attempts 6–5goals 1–1
- Hyman – Nylander – Matthews12:05
xG 0.88–0.79 (53%)attempts 18–16goals 1–1
- Marleau – van Riemsdyk – Marner4:18
xG 0.04–0.06 (42%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Marleau – Komarov – Kadri9:48
xG 0.31–0.57 (36%)attempts 9–16goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHainsey – Rielly17:34
xG 1.03–0.89 (54%)attempts 18–19goals 2–3
- Gardiner – Zaitsev17:57
xG 0.85–0.86 (50%)attempts 20–21goals 1–1
- Polak – Borgman14:22
xG 0.62–0.96 (39%)attempts 17–22goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).