Thu, Oct 26, 2017·Madison Square Garden, New York
Arizona Coyotes 2, New York Rangers 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 88% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 07 | 111 | 111 | 229 |
| NYR | 213 | 211 | 16 | 530 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:01NYRChris KreiderAssists: Mats Zuccarello, Mika Zibanejad · Snap, 0.22 xG0–1
- P1 15:57NYRPavel BuchnevichAssists: Ryan McDonagh, Boo Nieves · Snap, 0.02 xG0–2
- P2 5:13ARIAnthony DuclairAssists: Christian Dvorak, Alex Goligoski · Backhand, 0.09 xG1–2
- P2 5:59NYRMichael GrabnerGWGAssists: Boo Nieves · Wrist, 0.19 xG1–3
- P2 13:56NYRPavel BuchnevichAssists: Boo Nieves · Wrist, 0.26 xG1–4
- P3 3:52ARIClayton KellerPPAssists: Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Max Domi · Snap, 0.10 xG2–4
- P3 19:24NYRMichael GrabnerENUnassisted · Wrist, 0.72 xG2–5
Penalties (8)
- P1 17:06ARIAlex Goligoski: Slashing2 min
- P2 17:23NYRKevin Shattenkirk: High sticking double minor4 min
- P3 3:43NYRKevin Shattenkirk: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P3 6:52ARIBrad Richardson: Tripping2 min
- P3 16:09ARIJason Demers: Fighting5 min
- P3 16:09NYRChris Kreider: Fighting5 min
- P3 16:09NYRChris Kreider: Cross checking2 min
- P3 16:09ARIJason Demers: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hayes won the faceoff against Stepan
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- Kempe – Rinaldo – Rieder7:05
xG 0.10–0.17 (37%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Richardson – Cousins – Martinook7:28
xG 0.15–0.56 (21%)attempts 4–5goals 0–2
- Duclair – Perlini – Dvorak10:15
xG 0.43–0.95 (31%)attempts 10–11goals 1–0
- Stepan – Domi – Keller15:26
xG 0.57–1.10 (34%)attempts 16–14goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestHjalmarsson – Schenn12:23
xG 0.36–0.17 (68%)attempts 13–7goals 0–0
- Demers – Clendening2:53
xG 0.12–0.02 (89%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Goligoski – Ekman-Larsson4:45
xG 0.19–0.17 (52%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestGrabner – Nieves – Buchnevich10:05
xG 1.60–0.45 (78%)attempts 13–9goals 3–0
- Nash – Zibanejad – Miller11:28
xG 0.68–0.34 (66%)attempts 15–10goals 0–0
- Desharnais – Kreider – Zuccarello10:23
xG 0.31–0.18 (63%)attempts 7–8goals 0–1
- Hayes – Fast – Vesey11:21
xG 0.48–0.36 (57%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHolden – Skjei17:45
xG 1.62–0.38 (81%)attempts 19–12goals 1–0
- Smith – McDonagh16:43
xG 1.12–0.32 (78%)attempts 17–14goals 3–0
- Staal – Shattenkirk12:47
xG 0.60–0.55 (52%)attempts 8–12goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it ARI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 88% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − ARI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).