Sat, Oct 28, 2017·Air Canada Centre, Toronto
Philadelphia Flyers 4, Toronto Maple Leafs 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 80% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 26 | 216 | 08 | 430 |
| TOR | 110 | 18 | 012 | 230 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:07TORNazem KadriAssists: Auston Matthews, Josh Leivo · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–1
- P1 12:06PHIBrandon ManningAssists: Scott Laughton, Taylor Leier · Snap, 0.10 xG1–1
- P1 18:38PHIJakub VoracekAssists: Radko Gudas, Sean Couturier · Wrist, 0.18 xG2–1
- P2 11:03PHIValtteri FilppulaPPGWGAssists: Travis Konecny, Shayne Gostisbehere · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–1
- P2 13:02TORNazem KadriAssists: Connor Brown, Ron Hainsey · Wrist, 0.31 xG3–2
- P2 15:20PHIClaude GirouxAssists: Jakub Voracek, Brandon Manning · Wrist, 0.05 xG4–2
Penalties (4)
- P1 7:03PHISean Couturier: Tripping2 min
- P2 1:01PHIShayne Gostisbehere: Slashing2 min
- P2 2:35PHIRobert Hagg: Holding2 min
- P2 9:45TORNikita Zaitsev: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Couturier won the faceoff against Kadri
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- Lehtera – Read – Konecny7:38
xG 0.41–0.39 (51%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Giroux – Voracek – Couturier15:42
xG 0.56–0.68 (45%)attempts 13–15goals 2–1
- Laughton – Leier – Raffl10:02
xG 0.18–0.59 (23%)attempts 5–9goals 1–0
- Filppula – Simmonds – Weal11:20
xG 0.36–0.82 (31%)attempts 11–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHagg – Provorov5:22
xG 0.31–0.04 (90%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Gudas – Sanheim10:31
xG 0.42–0.35 (55%)attempts 10–7goals 1–0
- Manning – Hagg11:34
xG 0.33–0.44 (43%)attempts 7–12goals 2–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestHyman – Nylander – Matthews11:53
xG 0.64–0.22 (74%)attempts 14–8goals 0–0
- Moore – Leivo – Kapanen5:07
xG 0.59–0.46 (57%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Marleau – Leivo – Marner2:52
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Komarov – Kadri – Brown12:45
xG 0.64–0.66 (49%)attempts 13–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHainsey – Rielly14:28
xG 1.09–0.55 (67%)attempts 17–12goals 1–2
- Polak – Borgman13:33
xG 0.61–0.26 (70%)attempts 12–10goals 0–1
- Gardiner – Zaitsev16:53
xG 0.52–0.75 (41%)attempts 13–15goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 80% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).