Wed, Nov 1, 2017·SAP Center at San Jose, San Jose
Nashville Predators 1, San Jose Sharks 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 76% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 06 | 17 | 07 | 120 |
| SJS | 17 | 28 | 18 | 423 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:49SJSJoonas DonskoiAssists: Tim Heed, Mikkel Boedker · Slap, 0.28 xG0–1
- P2 8:17SJSJoe PavelskiGWGAssists: Brenden Dillon, Joe Thornton · Tip-in, 0.12 xG0–2
- P2 10:04NSHRoman JosiAssists: Calle Jarnkrok · Backhand, 0.02 xG1–2
- P2 13:50SJSMarc-Edouard VlasicPPAssists: Kevin Labanc, Joonas Donskoi · Slap, 0.04 xG1–3
- P3 13:43SJSMikkel BoedkerAssists: Chris Tierney, Joakim Ryan · Wrist, 0.22 xG1–4
Penalties (20)
- P1 4:55NSHAlexei Emelin: Holding2 min
- P1 7:15SJSJustin Braun: Tripping2 min
- P1 9:17NSHCraig Smith: Hooking2 min
- P2 3:07NSHScott Hartnell: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P2 12:46NSHFilip Forsberg: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 16:41NSHMiikka Salomaki: Interference2 min
- P3 1:02NSHRyan Johansen: Boarding2 min
- P3 1:21SJSBrent Burns: Interference2 min
- P3 4:33SJSTim Heed: Slashing2 min
- P3 9:23NSHRyan Johansen: Fighting5 min
- P3 9:23SJSJoe Pavelski: Fighting5 min
- P3 12:03SJSBrenden Dillon: Roughing2 min
- P3 12:03NSHAustin Watson: Roughing2 min
- P3 12:03NSHAustin Watson: Roughing2 min
- P3 13:26SJSTomas Hertl: Hooking2 min
- P3 17:28NSHColton Sissons: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:17NSHCody McLeod: Slashing2 min
- P3 19:17NSHCody McLeod: Misconduct10 min
- P3 19:17SJSJoe Thornton: Misconduct10 min
- P3 19:17SJSJoe Thornton: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Sissons won the faceoff against Tierney
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestSmith – Jarnkrok – Watson5:29
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–1goals 1–0
- Hartnell – Sissons – Arvidsson4:40
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- McLeod – Salomaki – Gaudreau3:15
xG 0.08–0.12 (40%)attempts 3–1goals 0–1
- Hartnell – Sissons – Fiala5:15
xG 0.02–0.07 (17%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Irwin – Girard11:26
xG 0.23–0.22 (51%)attempts 6–6goals 0–1
- Emelin – Subban9:18
xG 0.06–0.38 (14%)attempts 5–5goals 0–1
- Josi – Ekholm13:59
xG 0.21–0.72 (23%)attempts 18–7goals 1–0
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestCouture – Hertl – Karlsson9:29
xG 0.80–0.08 (91%)attempts 7–10goals 0–0
- Thornton – Pavelski – Labanc6:43
xG 0.12–0.10 (55%)attempts 2–4goals 1–0
- Ward – Carpenter – Meier6:03
xG 0.01–0.16 (8%)attempts 2–6goals 0–1
- Boedker – Donskoi – Tierney7:50
xG 0.00–0.17 (0%)attempts 1–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestVlasic – Braun9:53
xG 0.74–0.09 (89%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Dillon – Heed11:15
xG 0.46–0.12 (79%)attempts 6–9goals 2–1
- Braun – Dillon3:14
xG 0.09–0.13 (41%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 76% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).