Sat, Nov 4, 2017·Gila River Arena, Glendale
Carolina Hurricanes 1, Arizona Coyotes 2 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 76% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 09 | 07 | 116 | 05 | 1 | 137 |
| ARI | 010 | 16 | 06 | 02 | 2 | 224 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 11:33ARIClayton KellerAssists: Brad Richardson · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–1
- P3 17:35CARJordan StaalAssists: Sebastian Aho, Noah Hanifin · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–1
Shootout
- 1. ARI Clayton Keller scored
- 2. CAR Jaccob Slavin stopped
- 3. ARI Oliver Ekman-Larsson stopped
- 4. CAR Brock McGinn scored
- 5. ARI Derek Stepan scored
- 6. CAR Derek Ryan stopped
Penalties (6)
- P1 10:15CARRoland McKeown: Interference2 min
- P2 1:20ARILuke Schenn: Penalty shot hooking on breakaway0 min
- P2 5:20ARIZac Rinaldo: Tripping2 min
- P2 16:42ARIChristian Dvorak: Holding2 min
- P2 17:45CARJustin Faulk: Illegal equipment2 min
- P3 6:51ARIBrendan Perlini: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lindholm won the faceoff against Stepan
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestSkinner – Lindholm – Ryan4:54
xG 0.46–0.09 (84%)attempts 10–3goals 0–0
- Staal – Skinner – Lindholm9:04
xG 0.45–0.17 (72%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
- Staal – Teravainen – Aho3:44
xG 0.17–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 1–0
- Williams – Rask – McGinn3:51
xG 0.19–0.04 (83%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestvan Riemsdyk – Fleury12:24
xG 0.42–0.04 (91%)attempts 16–2goals 0–0
- Faulk – Slavin12:42
xG 0.63–0.43 (59%)attempts 12–12goals 0–1
- van Riemsdyk – Hanifin2:23
xG 0.12–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestStepan – Perlini – Keller6:15
xG 0.33–0.13 (71%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Richardson – Cousins – Martinook8:20
xG 0.40–0.31 (57%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
- Kempe – Rinaldo – Rieder5:12
xG 0.05–0.12 (30%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Stepan – Rieder – Keller4:21
xG 0.00–0.21 (0%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDemers – Ekman-Larsson15:01
xG 0.44–0.27 (61%)attempts 16–12goals 1–1
- Goligoski – Mermis4:13
xG 0.15–0.07 (67%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Schenn – Mermis2:24
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ARI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ARI is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 76% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ARI − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).