Tue, Nov 28, 2017·Rogers Place, Edmonton
Arizona Coyotes 2, Edmonton Oilers 3 (OT)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Arizona Coyotes win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 17 | 111 | 09 | 04 | 231 |
| EDM | 16 | 011 | 19 | 11 | 327 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:22ARIChristian FischerAssists: Christian Dvorak, Max Domi · Wrist, 0.28 xG1–0
- P1 16:30EDMZack KassianAssists: Mark Letestu · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–1
- P2 19:11ARIOliver Ekman-LarssonPPAssists: Max Domi, Clayton Keller · Slap, 0.09 xG2–1
- P3 14:25EDMMatt BenningAssists: Kris Russell, Milan Lucic · Snap, 0.03 xG2–2
- OT 4:20EDMRyan Nugent-HopkinsGWGAssists: Matt Benning · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 14:11ARIClayton Keller: Hooking2 min
- P1 18:19EDMMatt Benning: Tripping2 min
- P2 8:00ARINick Cousins: Holding2 min
- P2 8:00EDMYohann Auvitu: Holding2 min
- P2 14:47ARIJordan Martinook: Cross checking2 min
- P2 18:23EDMRyan Strome: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 4:55ARIBrendan Perlini: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Draisaitl won the faceoff against Stepan
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestDomi – Dvorak – Fischer11:12
xG 1.17–0.51 (70%)attempts 13–8goals 1–0
- Richardson – Strome – Keller9:44
xG 0.95–0.48 (66%)attempts 11–11goals 0–0
- Rinaldo – Cousins – Martinook6:34
xG 0.16–0.10 (62%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Stepan – Rieder – Perlini12:35
xG 0.30–0.32 (48%)attempts 12–16goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDemers – Ekman-Larsson15:59
xG 1.53–0.31 (83%)attempts 21–10goals 0–0
- Goligoski – Hjalmarsson8:58
xG 0.79–0.26 (75%)attempts 10–11goals 1–0
- Goligoski – Connauton4:17
xG 0.11–0.38 (23%)attempts 5–5goals 0–1
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestLetestu – Kassian – Pakarinen5:03
xG 0.42–0.06 (88%)attempts 5–4goals 1–0
- Lucic – Kassian – McDavid2:35
xG 0.17–0.11 (60%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Maroon – Draisaitl – McDavid2:34
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Strome – Draisaitl – Caggiula9:42
xG 0.42–0.41 (51%)attempts 14–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKlefbom – Benning13:49
xG 0.50–0.15 (77%)attempts 15–10goals 0–0
- Larsson – Nurse18:38
xG 0.76–0.93 (45%)attempts 22–16goals 0–1
- Russell – Auvitu11:11
xG 0.38–1.20 (24%)attempts 11–19goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it ARI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Arizona Coyotes win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − ARI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).