Sun, Dec 3, 2017·T-Mobile Arena, Paradise
Arizona Coyotes 2, Vegas Golden Knights 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 08 | 16 | 118 | 01 | 233 |
| VGK | 015 | 111 | 113 | 16 | 345 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 2:42VGKAlex TuchAssists: Colin Miller, Cody Eakin · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–1
- P2 13:41ARIJakob ChychrunAssists: Max Domi, Christian Fischer · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–1
- P3 0:18VGKJonathan MarchessaultAssists: Nate Schmidt, William Karlsson · Wrist, 0.19 xG1–2
- P3 8:50ARIDerek StepanPPAssists: Max Domi, Clayton Keller · Wrist, 0.50 xG2–2
- OT 3:51VGKReilly SmithGWGAssists: Jonathan Marchessault · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–3
Penalties (3)
- P3 5:22ARIChristian Fischer: Hooking2 min
- P3 5:22VGKColin Miller: Embellishment2 min
- P3 6:58VGKDeryk Engelland: High sticking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Marchessault won the faceoff against Stepan
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestDomi – Dvorak – Fischer2:10
xG 0.29–0.07 (81%)attempts 3–2goals 1–0
- Duclair – Fischer – Strome5:42
xG 0.29–0.11 (72%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Fischer – Strome – Keller2:29
xG 0.04–0.08 (33%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Duclair – Strome – Keller2:13
xG 0.02–0.13 (14%)attempts 1–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Schenn – Connauton10:28
xG 0.29–0.65 (31%)attempts 10–17goals 0–1
- Demers – Ekman-Larsson19:04
xG 0.63–1.00 (39%)attempts 15–21goals 0–1
- Goligoski – Chychrun19:24
xG 0.63–1.04 (37%)attempts 19–27goals 0–0
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestMatteau – Bellemare – Nosek9:04
xG 0.94–0.15 (87%)attempts 19–7goals 0–0
- Smith – Karlsson – Marchessault14:36
xG 0.89–0.32 (74%)attempts 17–10goals 1–0
- Eakin – Leipsic – Tuch10:18
xG 0.62–0.45 (58%)attempts 15–11goals 1–1
- Neal – Haula – Lindberg14:27
xG 0.38–0.96 (28%)attempts 17–16goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSbisa – Schmidt17:29
xG 1.30–1.00 (57%)attempts 22–22goals 1–0
- McNabb – Miller16:11
xG 0.68–0.38 (64%)attempts 18–11goals 1–1
- Engelland – Theodore17:12
xG 0.59–0.33 (64%)attempts 23–13goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VGK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VGK is favoured, below it ARI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VGK − ARI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).