Thu, Dec 14, 2017·Gila River Arena, Glendale
Tampa Bay Lightning 4, Arizona Coyotes 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 83% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 219 | 116 | 113 | 448 |
| ARI | 010 | 18 | 015 | 133 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:30TBLVladislav NamestnikovPPAssists: Steven Stamkos, Nikita Kucherov · Wrist, 0.46 xG1–0
- P1 12:11TBLBrayden PointGWGAssists: Ondrej Palat, Tyler Johnson · Backhand, 0.15 xG2–0
- P2 6:11TBLNikita KucherovAssists: Victor Hedman · Wrist, 0.02 xG3–0
- P2 11:29ARIClayton KellerPPAssists: Derek Stepan, Brendan Perlini · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–1
- P3 0:31TBLTyler JohnsonAssists: Brayden Point, Anton Stralman · Wrist, 0.07 xG4–1
Penalties (14)
- P1 10:15ARIAlex Goligoski: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P1 13:34ARIJason Demers: Slashing2 min
- P1 14:04TBLAlex Killorn: Holding2 min
- P2 8:10TBLCedric Paquette: Roughing2 min
- P2 8:10ARILuke Schenn: Roughing2 min
- P2 9:39TBLMikhail Sergachev: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 2:48ARIBrad Richardson: Fighting5 min
- P3 2:48TBLBrayden Point: Fighting5 min
- P3 9:21ARIMax Domi: Elbowing2 min
- P3 9:21ARIMax Domi: Roughing2 min
- P3 9:21TBLAnton Stralman: Roughing2 min
- P3 9:21ARINick Cousins: Fighting5 min
- P3 9:21TBLChris Kunitz: Fighting5 min
- P3 14:22TBLCory Conacher: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Dvorak won the faceoff against Point
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestKillorn – Conacher – Gourde10:29
xG 1.17–0.67 (64%)attempts 16–14goals 0–0
- Kunitz – Callahan – Paquette6:46
xG 0.72–0.28 (72%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Johnson – Palat – Point9:45
xG 0.42–0.04 (91%)attempts 13–4goals 1–0
- Stamkos – Kucherov – Namestnikov11:30
xG 0.25–0.18 (58%)attempts 13–9goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestHedman – Dotchin18:20
xG 1.54–0.50 (76%)attempts 25–16goals 1–0
- Girardi – Koekkoek10:58
xG 0.57–0.31 (64%)attempts 12–13goals 1–0
- Stralman – Sergachev13:40
xG 0.65–0.86 (43%)attempts 18–13goals 1–0
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestStepan – Rieder – Perlini10:40
xG 0.56–0.20 (74%)attempts 13–5goals 0–0
- Fischer – Strome – Keller10:28
xG 0.44–0.30 (60%)attempts 12–11goals 0–0
- Richardson – Cousins – Domi2:02
xG 0.00–0.48 (0%)attempts 0–8goals 0–0
- Richardson – Cousins – Martinook7:31
xG 0.18–0.68 (21%)attempts 8–17goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestDemers – Ekman-Larsson12:53
xG 0.78–0.41 (66%)attempts 16–10goals 0–2
- Schenn – Connauton11:58
xG 0.53–0.65 (45%)attempts 19–13goals 0–0
- Demers – Chychrun3:44
xG 0.02–0.26 (8%)attempts 2–9goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ARI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ARI is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 83% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ARI − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).