Fri, Dec 15, 2017·Little Caesars Arena, Detroit
Toronto Maple Leafs 1, Detroit Red Wings 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 112 | 05 | 09 | 126 |
| DET | 07 | 213 | 19 | 329 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:58TORKasperi KapanenAssists: Andreas Borgman, Matt Martin · Deflected, 0.08 xG1–0
- P2 5:22DETDanny DeKeyserAssists: Henrik Zetterberg, Martin Frk · Snap, 0.05 xG1–1
- P2 11:22DETTrevor DaleySHGWGAssists: Jonathan Ericsson, Luke Glendening · Snap, 0.08 xG1–2
- P3 9:39DETTomas TatarPPAssists: Henrik Zetterberg, Niklas Kronwall · Tip-in, 0.13 xG1–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 8:03DETTrevor Daley: Interference2 min
- P1 13:08TORJames van Riemsdyk: Interference2 min
- P2 5:58TORMatt Martin: Interference2 min
- P2 10:25DETNiklas Kronwall: Hooking2 min
- P3 8:06TORTyler Bozak: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 14:10DETDanny DeKeyser: Holding2 min
- P3 19:23TORRon Hainsey: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Larkin won the faceoff against Marleau
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestMoore – Martin – Kapanen6:23
xG 0.36–0.18 (67%)attempts 8–4goals 1–0
- van Riemsdyk – Bozak – Brown8:43
xG 0.41–0.23 (64%)attempts 14–5goals 0–1
- Marleau – Kapanen – Marner2:10
xG 0.05–0.13 (30%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Marleau – Hyman – Marner10:22
xG 0.14–0.29 (33%)attempts 5–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPolak – Rielly2:34
xG 0.20–0.04 (82%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Gardiner – Zaitsev11:36
xG 0.53–0.38 (59%)attempts 15–12goals 0–0
- Polak – Borgman6:53
xG 0.21–0.18 (54%)attempts 6–5goals 1–1
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestNielsen – Helm – Glendening8:27
xG 0.30–0.16 (64%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Tatar – Athanasiou – Larkin2:57
xG 0.13–0.06 (67%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Athanasiou – Mantha – Larkin3:16
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Tatar – Mantha – Larkin3:52
xG 0.05–0.17 (21%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDaley – Ericsson13:36
xG 0.53–0.19 (74%)attempts 17–10goals 0–0
- Green – DeKeyser16:07
xG 0.48–0.38 (56%)attempts 15–11goals 1–0
- Kronwall – Witkowski2:07
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).