Tue, Dec 19, 2017·Gila River Arena, Glendale
Florida Panthers 3, Arizona Coyotes 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Arizona Coyotes win this game 82% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 07 | 17 | 212 | 326 |
| ARI | 123 | 19 | 09 | 241 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:51ARIChristian FischerAssists: Clayton Keller, Oliver Ekman-Larsson · Wrist, 0.02 xG0–1
- P2 18:14ARIDerek StepanAssists: Brendan Perlini, Alex Goligoski · Wrist, 0.29 xG0–2
- P2 19:50FLANick BjugstadAssists: Derek MacKenzie · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–2
- P3 3:37FLADenis MalginAssists: Evgenii Dadonov, Vincent Trocheck · Wrist, 0.07 xG2–2
- P3 5:41FLAMike MathesonGWGAssists: Evgenii Dadonov · Wrist, 0.17 xG3–2
Penalties (7)
- P1 2:13FLADerek MacKenzie: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 13:47FLAKeith Yandle: Holding2 min
- P1 14:05ARIMax Domi: Tripping2 min
- P1 14:15FLAAaron Ekblad: Tripping2 min
- P2 1:05FLAKeith Yandle: Roughing2 min
- P3 4:58ARINick Merkley: High sticking2 min
- P3 4:58FLAIan McCoshen: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stepan won the faceoff against Barkov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestBrickley – Bjugstad – McCann3:35
xG 0.17–0.01 (93%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- MacKenzie – Sceviour – McCann5:15
xG 0.22–0.06 (77%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- McGinn – Trocheck – Malgin2:16
xG 0.11–0.01 (89%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Dadonov – Trocheck – Malgin4:14
xG 0.12–0.02 (84%)attempts 3–1goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestPysyk – Matheson15:31
xG 0.48–0.15 (76%)attempts 19–12goals 1–0
- Petrovic – McCoshen12:15
xG 0.24–0.23 (51%)attempts 8–11goals 1–0
- Yandle – Ekblad19:32
xG 0.73–1.40 (34%)attempts 19–25goals 0–1
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestDomi – Fischer – Keller10:19
xG 0.63–0.29 (69%)attempts 15–8goals 0–0
- Richardson – Cousins – Martinook10:21
xG 0.36–0.16 (69%)attempts 16–5goals 0–0
- Stepan – Rieder – Perlini11:15
xG 0.54–0.36 (60%)attempts 8–17goals 1–0
- Rinaldo – Dvorak – Merkley8:00
xG 0.11–0.18 (38%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGoligoski – Chychrun17:43
xG 1.12–0.24 (83%)attempts 21–11goals 1–0
- Schenn – Connauton12:38
xG 0.48–0.46 (51%)attempts 11–14goals 0–2
- Demers – Ekman-Larsson17:33
xG 0.39–0.70 (36%)attempts 18–19goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ARI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ARI is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Arizona Coyotes win this game 82% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ARI − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).