Sun, Dec 31, 2017·Honda Center, Anaheim
Arizona Coyotes 2, Anaheim Ducks 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARI | 17 | 010 | 18 | 225 |
| ANA | 211 | 06 | 39 | 526 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:02ANARickard RakellAssists: Antoine Vermette, Ryan Getzlaf · Tip-in, 0.09 xG0–1
- P1 11:04ARIBrendan PerliniPPAssists: Alex Goligoski · Snap, 0.05 xG1–1
- P1 11:47ANARickard RakellAssists: Ryan Getzlaf, Antoine Vermette · Slap, 0.13 xG1–2
- P3 6:52ARIClayton KellerPPAssists: Derek Stepan · Tip-in, 0.17 xG2–2
- P3 11:51ANACam FowlerGWGAssists: Jakob Silfverberg, Ryan Kesler · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–3
- P3 17:13ANAJakob SilfverbergAssists: Cam Fowler, John Gibson · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–4
- P3 19:09ANAAntoine VermetteENAssists: Ryan Kesler, Kevin Bieksa · Wrist, 0.73 xG2–5
Penalties (5)
- P1 9:41ANARickard Rakell: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
- P3 1:24ARIJordan Martinook: Hooking2 min
- P3 4:43ANARyan Getzlaf: High sticking2 min
- P3 6:07ANAChris Wagner: Interference goalkeeper2 min · PPG
- P3 19:37ANADerek Grant: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kesler won the faceoff against Domi
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestStepan – Rieder – Perlini12:12
xG 0.26–0.06 (80%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Cousins – Martinook – Duclair8:16
xG 0.22–0.17 (57%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Domi – Fischer – Keller11:58
xG 0.42–0.39 (52%)attempts 11–11goals 0–0
- Archibald – Dvorak – Crouse10:50
xG 0.16–0.36 (31%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSchenn – Connauton15:30
xG 0.52–0.25 (68%)attempts 20–7goals 0–1
- Demers – Ekman-Larsson17:25
xG 0.45–0.52 (46%)attempts 17–12goals 0–1
- Goligoski – Chychrun18:13
xG 0.35–0.90 (28%)attempts 13–25goals 0–1
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestVermette – Getzlaf – Rakell17:10
xG 0.75–0.44 (63%)attempts 10–15goals 2–0
- Henrique – Wagner – Kase2:05
xG 0.14–0.01 (92%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Kesler – Cogliano – Silfverberg13:55
xG 0.56–0.48 (54%)attempts 17–15goals 1–0
- Henrique – Ritchie – Kase7:37
xG 0.09–0.06 (59%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestManson – Lindholm19:08
xG 0.87–0.34 (72%)attempts 15–13goals 1–0
- Bieksa – Fowler17:54
xG 0.52–0.58 (47%)attempts 18–16goals 1–0
- Beauchemin – Montour13:52
xG 0.22–0.40 (36%)attempts 12–18goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ANA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ANA is favoured, below it ARI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ANA − ARI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).