Sat, Jan 6, 2018·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
Tampa Bay Lightning 3, Ottawa Senators 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 013 | 320 | 015 | 348 |
| OTT | 312 | 010 | 311 | 633 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:48OTTRyan DzingelAssists: Mark Stone · Snap, 0.12 xG0–1
- P1 5:51OTTMatt DucheneAssists: Bobby Ryan · Snap, 0.12 xG0–2
- P1 17:04OTTZack SmithAssists: Erik Karlsson, Johnny Oduya · Tip-in, 0.11 xG0–3
- P2 0:26TBLVictor HedmanUnassisted · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–3
- P2 1:41TBLSlater KoekkoekAssists: Nikita Kucherov, Alex Killorn · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–3
- P2 15:57TBLYanni GourdePPAssists: Mikhail Sergachev, Tyler Johnson · Deflected, 0.13 xG3–3
- P3 10:44OTTMark StoneGWGAssists: Derick Brassard, Thomas Chabot · Snap, 0.21 xG3–4
- P3 14:57OTTJean-Gabriel PageauAssists: Erik Karlsson · Tip-in, 0.09 xG3–5
- P3 17:08OTTRyan DzingelAssists: Erik Karlsson, Mark Stone · Backhand, 0.09 xG3–6
Penalties (12)
- P1 2:09OTTMike Hoffman: Tripping2 min
- P1 11:40OTTGabriel Dumont: High sticking2 min
- P1 17:47TBLVictor Hedman: Roughing2 min
- P2 4:12TBLMikhail Sergachev: Boarding2 min
- P2 10:32OTTZack Smith: Cross checking2 min
- P2 10:32TBLNikita Kucherov: Cross checking2 min
- P2 15:40OTTZack Smith: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P2 16:42TBLRyan Callahan: Holding2 min
- P2 19:46OTTJohnny Oduya: Cross checking2 min
- P3 14:54TBLJake Dotchin: Cross checking2 min
- P3 14:54OTTDerick Brassard: Roughing2 min
- P3 17:27OTTBen Harpur: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Duchene won the faceoff against Paquette
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestKillorn – Conacher – Gourde7:56
xG 0.36–0.28 (56%)attempts 11–4goals 0–0
- Stamkos – Kucherov – Namestnikov10:48
xG 0.53–0.54 (49%)attempts 16–12goals 0–2
- Johnson – Palat – Point10:01
xG 0.40–0.51 (44%)attempts 17–9goals 1–1
- Kunitz – Callahan – Paquette8:18
xG 0.35–0.68 (34%)attempts 11–16goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Hedman – Dotchin17:09
xG 0.78–0.91 (46%)attempts 26–22goals 1–1
- Girardi – Koekkoek9:43
xG 0.34–0.48 (42%)attempts 13–15goals 1–1
- Stralman – Sergachev10:02
xG 0.32–0.76 (30%)attempts 14–8goals 0–2
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestBrassard – Stone – Dzingel8:46
xG 1.01–0.77 (57%)attempts 19–17goals 3–1
- Ryan – Hoffman – Duchene8:42
xG 0.48–0.37 (57%)attempts 11–14goals 1–1
- Burrows – Dumont – White6:06
xG 0.37–0.28 (57%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Pyatt – Smith – Pageau9:18
xG 0.17–0.54 (24%)attempts 5–15goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestKarlsson – Chabot9:34
xG 0.87–0.18 (83%)attempts 19–8goals 2–0
- Oduya – Karlsson6:06
xG 0.57–0.47 (54%)attempts 10–12goals 2–0
- Oduya – Harpur3:09
xG 0.03–0.02 (62%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).