Wed, Jan 10, 2018·Air Canada Centre, Toronto
Ottawa Senators 4, Toronto Maple Leafs 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 79% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 112 | 112 | 28 | 432 |
| TOR | 016 | 116 | 216 | 348 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:26OTTThomas ChabotAssists: Ryan Dzingel · Deflected, 0.12 xG1–0
- P2 1:52OTTMike HoffmanAssists: Matt Duchene · Snap, 0.28 xG2–0
- P2 18:10TORAndreas BorgmanAssists: Tyler Bozak, Leo Komarov · Slap, 0.01 xG2–1
- P3 0:54TORJames van RiemsdykAssists: Tyler Bozak, Mitch Marner · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–2
- P3 2:15OTTGabriel DumontAssists: Filip Chlapik, Alexandre Burrows · Snap, 0.28 xG3–2
- P3 12:28TORMorgan RiellyAssists: William Nylander, Ron Hainsey · Wrist, 0.02 xG3–3
- P3 16:55OTTTom PyattGWGAssists: Matt Duchene, Zack Smith · Snap, 0.20 xG4–3
Penalties (4)
- P1 8:40OTTMatt Duchene: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 6:14OTTCody Ceci: Holding2 min
- P2 12:00OTTTom Pyatt: Hooking2 min
- P2 15:57TORLeo Komarov: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kadri won the faceoff against Brassard
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestBurrows – Dumont – Chlapik3:52
xG 0.48–0.29 (63%)attempts 6–9goals 1–1
- Pyatt – Smith – Pageau9:57
xG 0.69–0.70 (49%)attempts 9–14goals 0–1
- Brassard – Stone – Dzingel14:12
xG 1.44–1.56 (48%)attempts 14–24goals 0–0
- Hoffman – Duchene – White11:20
xG 0.60–0.95 (39%)attempts 8–16goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestPhaneuf – Ceci12:17
xG 0.80–0.56 (59%)attempts 10–16goals 0–0
- Karlsson – Harpur2:02
xG 0.21–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 1–0
- Claesson – Harpur7:12
xG 0.51–0.54 (48%)attempts 9–12goals 1–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestvan Riemsdyk – Bozak – Marner13:18
xG 1.66–0.66 (72%)attempts 28–11goals 1–1
- Hyman – Nylander – Matthews14:56
xG 1.10–1.08 (50%)attempts 19–11goals 1–1
- Marleau – Komarov – Kadri12:33
xG 1.19–1.37 (47%)attempts 19–12goals 0–0
- Martin – Brown – Gauthier4:31
xG 0.08–0.34 (20%)attempts 6–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestHainsey – Rielly16:36
xG 2.24–1.29 (63%)attempts 28–12goals 0–1
- Gardiner – Borgman2:08
xG 0.22–0.09 (70%)attempts 5–1goals 1–0
- Polak – Gardiner7:43
xG 0.37–0.27 (58%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 79% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).