Tue, Jan 16, 2018·Gila River Arena, Glendale
San Jose Sharks 3, Arizona Coyotes 2 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Arizona Coyotes win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 112 | 15 | 04 | 01 | 1 | 322 |
| ARI | 010 | 16 | 112 | 04 | 0 | 232 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:37SJSJoe ThorntonPPAssists: Logan Couture, Tomas Hertl · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–0
- P2 0:34SJSMikkel BoedkerAssists: Brent Burns, Joakim Ryan · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–0
- P2 16:05ARIJordan MartinookAssists: Jason Demers, Brad Richardson · Tip-in, 0.10 xG2–1
- P3 6:10ARIBrad RichardsonAssists: Nick Cousins, Oliver Ekman-Larsson · Backhand, 0.24 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. ARI Clayton Keller stopped
- 2. SJS Joe Pavelski scored
- 3. ARI Brendan Perlini stopped
- 4. SJS Chris Tierney stopped
- 5. ARI Derek Stepan stopped
Penalties (4)
- P1 4:21ARIChristian Dvorak: Holding2 min · PPG
- P1 16:34ARIOliver Ekman-Larsson: Slashing2 min
- P2 13:28SJSMikkel Boedker: Too many men on the ice2 min
- OT 1:07SJSTomas Hertl: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Tierney won the faceoff against Domi
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestBoedker – Donskoi – Tierney10:20
xG 0.39–0.21 (65%)attempts 7–7goals 1–1
- Couture – Hertl – Karlsson2:33
xG 0.18–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Thornton – Pavelski – Meier13:38
xG 0.29–0.50 (37%)attempts 11–18goals 0–1
- Ward – Goodrow – Karlsson9:22
xG 0.21–0.53 (29%)attempts 7–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDillon – DeMelo11:38
xG 0.53–0.11 (83%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
- Burns – Ryan17:06
xG 0.36–0.72 (33%)attempts 12–20goals 1–0
- Vlasic – Braun18:53
xG 0.36–0.90 (29%)attempts 11–28goals 0–2
Arizona Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestRieder – Domi – Fischer11:05
xG 0.87–0.24 (79%)attempts 17–6goals 0–0
- Richardson – Cousins – Martinook10:52
xG 0.59–0.35 (63%)attempts 11–7goals 2–0
- Stepan – Panik – Perlini13:32
xG 0.32–0.29 (52%)attempts 22–9goals 0–0
- Archibald – Dvorak – Keller10:40
xG 0.16–0.50 (24%)attempts 9–12goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGoligoski – Schenn10:27
xG 0.82–0.29 (74%)attempts 17–7goals 0–0
- Demers – Ekman-Larsson16:32
xG 0.36–0.25 (59%)attempts 20–10goals 1–0
- Hjalmarsson – Chychrun16:18
xG 0.59–0.56 (51%)attempts 17–14goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ARI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ARI is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Arizona Coyotes win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ARI − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).