Thu, Jan 18, 2018·Amalie Arena, Tampa
Vegas Golden Knights 4, Tampa Bay Lightning 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 28 | 111 | 111 | 430 |
| TBL | 012 | 19 | 08 | 129 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:56VGKJames NealAssists: Deryk Engelland, David Perron · Tip-in, 0.07 xG1–0
- P1 16:03VGKNate SchmidtGWGAssists: Brayden McNabb, Erik Haula · Slap, 0.02 xG2–0
- P2 10:18TBLOndrej PalatPPAssists: Steven Stamkos, Nikita Kucherov · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–1
- P2 17:43VGKDavid PerronAssists: Deryk Engelland, Shea Theodore · Wrist, 0.08 xG3–1
- P3 0:18VGKWilliam KarlssonAssists: Jonathan Marchessault · Wrist, 0.02 xG4–1
Penalties (9)
- P2 9:04VGKWilliam Karlsson: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 14:00TBLYanni Gourde: Hooking2 min
- P3 3:29TBLJake Dotchin: Slashing2 min
- P3 9:42VGKPierre-Edouard Bellemare: Interference2 min
- P3 11:23VGKWilliam Karlsson: Tripping2 min
- P3 19:34TBLJake Dotchin: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:34VGKOscar Lindberg: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:34VGKAlex Tuch: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:34TBLCedric Paquette: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Point won the faceoff against Marchessault
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestCarrier – Carpenter – Bellemare9:11
xG 0.56–0.21 (73%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Smith – Karlsson – Marchessault12:17
xG 0.55–0.32 (63%)attempts 12–6goals 1–0
- Neal – Perron – Haula12:04
xG 0.80–0.58 (58%)attempts 22–10goals 3–0
- Eakin – Lindberg – Tuch9:19
xG 0.33–0.17 (66%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestEngelland – Theodore12:35
xG 0.82–0.38 (68%)attempts 15–9goals 3–0
- McNabb – Schmidt15:32
xG 0.69–0.48 (59%)attempts 18–10goals 1–0
- Miller – Hunt17:26
xG 0.70–0.51 (58%)attempts 16–10goals 0–0
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestKillorn – Namestnikov – Gourde4:04
xG 0.20–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Callahan – Conacher – Paquette4:44
xG 0.18–0.07 (71%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Kunitz – Stamkos – Kucherov5:02
xG 0.29–0.20 (60%)attempts 6–7goals 0–1
- Kucherov – Namestnikov – Point3:19
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStralman – Sergachev6:22
xG 0.68–0.24 (74%)attempts 12–6goals 0–1
- Girardi – Sergachev9:44
xG 0.24–0.27 (47%)attempts 5–9goals 0–1
- Koekkoek – Dotchin2:45
xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it VGK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − VGK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).