Sun, Feb 4, 2018·Capital One Arena, Washington
Vegas Golden Knights 4, Washington Capitals 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| VGK | 111 | 19 | 211 | 431 |
| WSH | 18 | 19 | 16 | 323 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:22WSHChandler StephensonAssists: Jay Beagle, Matt Niskanen · Snap, 0.05 xG0–1
- P1 16:06VGKRyan CarpenterAssists: Pierre-Edouard Bellemare, Nate Schmidt · Tip-in, 0.08 xG1–1
- P2 8:38WSHMatt NiskanenAssists: Evgeny Kuznetsov, Dmitry Orlov · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–2
- P2 18:53VGKReilly SmithPPAssists: Alex Tuch, Jonathan Marchessault · Backhand, 0.34 xG2–2
- P3 0:52WSHNicklas BackstromAssists: Christian Djoos, Andre Burakovsky · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–3
- P3 9:21VGKReilly SmithAssists: Jonathan Marchessault, William Karlsson · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–3
- P3 14:48VGKAlex TuchGWGAssists: Ryan Carpenter, Pierre-Edouard Bellemare · Wrist, 0.10 xG4–3
Penalties (3)
- P1 19:33VGKBrayden McNabb: Tripping2 min
- P2 11:47VGKAlex Tuch: Interference2 min
- P2 18:16WSHBrooks Orpik: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kuznetsov won the faceoff against Karlsson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestCarpenter – Bellemare – Tuch3:50
xG 0.50–0.00 (100%)attempts 10–1goals 2–0
- Smith – Karlsson – Marchessault14:13
xG 0.56–0.10 (85%)attempts 21–2goals 1–0
- Eakin – Lindberg – Tuch8:29
xG 0.14–0.05 (76%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Neal – Perron – Haula15:18
xG 0.41–0.82 (33%)attempts 12–15goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestMcNabb – Schmidt19:05
xG 1.00–0.53 (65%)attempts 28–12goals 1–1
- Miller – Hunt15:31
xG 0.26–0.09 (75%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Engelland – Theodore14:26
xG 0.36–0.29 (55%)attempts 13–10goals 1–1
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- Beagle – Smith-Pelly – Stephenson9:26
xG 0.15–0.13 (55%)attempts 5–9goals 1–0
- Oshie – Backstrom – Burakovsky11:44
xG 0.31–0.38 (45%)attempts 7–12goals 1–1
- Ovechkin – Kuznetsov – Wilson14:48
xG 0.53–0.67 (44%)attempts 12–18goals 1–0
- Eller – Connolly – Vrana9:26
xG 0.09–0.41 (19%)attempts 6–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Orpik – Bowey15:15
xG 0.22–0.29 (43%)attempts 12–12goals 0–1
- Carlson – Djoos15:46
xG 0.57–0.76 (43%)attempts 9–21goals 1–0
- Niskanen – Orlov19:46
xG 0.35–0.75 (32%)attempts 10–22goals 2–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it VGK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vegas Golden Knights win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − VGK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).