Sat, Feb 10, 2018·PNC Arena, Raleigh
Colorado Avalanche 1, Carolina Hurricanes 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 78% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 110 | 013 | 07 | 130 |
| CAR | 114 | 09 | 212 | 335 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 16:51COLTyson BarrieAssists: Mikko Rantanen, J.T. Compher · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–0
- P1 17:09CARBrock McGinnAssists: Elias Lindholm · Snap, 0.15 xG1–1
- P3 0:35CARBrock McGinnGWGAssists: Elias Lindholm, Jaccob Slavin · Snap, 0.17 xG1–2
- P3 13:17CARJeff SkinnerAssists: Lee Stempniak, Sebastian Aho · Wrist, 0.33 xG1–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 15:14COLNikita Zadorov: Cross checking2 min
- P1 15:59CARDerek Ryan: Hooking2 min
- P2 0:27CARTeuvo Teravainen: Tripping2 min
- P2 4:26CARTeuvo Teravainen: High sticking double minor4 min
- P2 14:11COLAnton Lindholm: Tripping2 min
- P3 7:56COLJ.T. Compher: Holding2 min
- P3 19:58CARJustin Williams: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kerfoot won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestWilson – Landeskog – Kerfoot8:41
xG 0.49–0.21 (70%)attempts 9–4goals 0–1
- Yakupov – Toninato – Greer5:57
xG 0.14–0.19 (42%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
- Compher – Rantanen – Jost9:38
xG 0.38–0.71 (35%)attempts 9–12goals 0–0
- Soderberg – Bourque – Nieto9:07
xG 0.48–0.94 (34%)attempts 7–14goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBarrie – Lindholm9:43
xG 0.54–0.48 (53%)attempts 9–4goals 0–1
- Barrie – Girard2:35
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Johnson – Zadorov8:11
xG 0.58–0.61 (49%)attempts 8–14goals 0–1
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestStaal – McGinn – Lindholm4:03
xG 0.86–0.04 (96%)attempts 6–3goals 1–0
- Williams – Rask – Teravainen4:09
xG 0.45–0.01 (97%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Stempniak – Skinner – Aho2:13
xG 0.45–0.02 (96%)attempts 4–2goals 1–0
- Williams – McGinn – Ryan5:29
xG 0.53–0.32 (62%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSlavin – Pesce14:04
xG 1.02–0.47 (68%)attempts 12–12goals 1–0
- van Riemsdyk – Hanifin10:35
xG 0.77–0.23 (77%)attempts 16–8goals 0–0
- Faulk – Hanifin3:53
xG 0.48–0.15 (77%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 78% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).