Sun, Feb 11, 2018·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
Colorado Avalanche 5, Buffalo Sabres 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 213 | 19 | 25 | 527 |
| BUF | 17 | 112 | 214 | 433 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:43COLAlexander KerfootAssists: Colin Wilson, Nikita Zadorov · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–0
- P1 7:57BUFBenoit PouliotSHAssists: Ryan O'Reilly · Wrist, 0.21 xG1–1
- P1 9:19COLMatt NietoSHUnassisted · Snap, 0.13 xG2–1
- P2 1:07COLColin WilsonAssists: Gabriel Landeskog · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–1
- P2 13:15BUFCasey NelsonSHAssists: Ryan O'Reilly, Justin Falk · Wrap-around, 0.13 xG3–2
- P3 3:05COLTyson JostPPAssists: Tyson Barrie, Mikko Rantanen · Wrist, 0.15 xG4–2
- P3 7:03COLGabriel BourqueGWGAssists: Anton Lindholm · Backhand, 0.17 xG5–2
- P3 12:14BUFRyan O'ReillyPPAssists: Kyle Okposo, Rasmus Ristolainen · Wrist, 0.10 xG5–3
- P3 17:08BUFEvander KaneUnassisted · Slap, 0.02 xG5–4
Penalties (12)
- P1 6:45BUFJordan Nolan: High sticking2 min
- P1 8:57COLA.J. Greer: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 15:52BUFMarco Scandella: Slashing2 min
- P1 17:42BUFScott Wilson: High sticking2 min
- P1 17:42COLTyson Jost: Delaying game bench face off violation2 min
- P2 3:20COLNikita Zadorov: Holding2 min
- P2 6:34BUFJacob Josefson: Holding2 min
- P2 8:40COLTyson Barrie: Slashing2 min
- P2 11:45BUFJordan Nolan: Holding2 min
- P3 2:34BUFJohan Larsson: Boarding2 min · PPG
- P3 10:42COLA.J. Greer: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 12:06COLCarl Soderberg: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00O'Reilly won the faceoff against Compher
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- Soderberg – Bourque – Nieto7:02
xG 0.25–0.21 (55%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
- Yakupov – Toninato – Greer4:06
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Compher – Rantanen – Jost10:31
xG 0.10–0.26 (27%)attempts 6–11goals 0–0
- Wilson – Landeskog – Kerfoot8:26
xG 0.19–0.42 (31%)attempts 4–8goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- Barrie – Lindholm5:51
xG 0.43–0.42 (51%)attempts 8–6goals 2–0
- Nemeth – Girard6:38
xG 0.06–0.07 (48%)attempts 2–7goals 0–0
- Johnson – Nemeth2:15
xG 0.02–0.03 (43%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestWilson – Reinhart – Rodrigues7:35
xG 0.47–0.08 (85%)attempts 14–6goals 0–0
- Josefson – Nolan – Girgensons2:06
xG 0.28–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Pominville – O'Reilly – Kane8:39
xG 0.39–0.18 (69%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Pouliot – Josefson – Nolan2:44
xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestNelson – Antipin2:05
xG 0.30–0.02 (93%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Falk – Antipin6:29
xG 0.27–0.02 (93%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Falk – Beaulieu4:02
xG 0.36–0.15 (70%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).