Mon, Feb 12, 2018·Air Canada Centre, Toronto
Tampa Bay Lightning 3, Toronto Maple Leafs 4
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 09 | 114 | 211 | 334 |
| TOR | 19 | 28 | 16 | 423 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:55TORWilliam NylanderAssists: Auston Matthews, Jake Gardiner · Snap, 0.12 xG0–1
- P2 3:08TORWilliam NylanderAssists: Auston Matthews, Mitch Marner · Wrist, 0.15 xG0–2
- P2 11:36TORJake GardinerAssists: William Nylander, Auston Matthews · Wrist, 0.09 xG0–3
- P2 15:59TBLAlex KillornAssists: Brayden Point, Nikita Kucherov · Wrist, 0.24 xG1–3
- P3 0:58TBLNikita KucherovAssists: Alex Killorn · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–3
- P3 1:18TBLYanni GourdeAssists: Braydon Coburn, Steven Stamkos · Tip-in, 0.08 xG3–3
- P3 4:37TORJames van RiemsdykGWGAssists: Tyler Bozak · Snap, 0.20 xG3–4
Penalties (3)
- P1 13:20TBLNikita Kucherov: Hooking2 min
- P1 16:02TORNikita Zaitsev: Tripping2 min
- P2 13:22TORTyler Bozak: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kadri won the faceoff against Point
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestStamkos – Gourde – Erne3:42
xG 0.26–0.05 (83%)attempts 6–2goals 1–0
- Callahan – Namestnikov – Erne3:42
xG 0.17–0.02 (90%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Kunitz – Callahan – Paquette3:41
xG 0.14–0.13 (52%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Killorn – Kucherov – Point13:38
xG 0.92–0.93 (50%)attempts 18–14goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestStralman – Sergachev3:01
xG 0.26–0.11 (70%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Girardi – Sergachev10:15
xG 0.39–0.32 (55%)attempts 12–8goals 0–1
- Coburn – Girardi2:53
xG 0.08–0.07 (52%)attempts 1–2goals 1–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestvan Riemsdyk – Bozak – Brown9:03
xG 0.43–0.14 (76%)attempts 6–5goals 1–0
- Hyman – Nylander – Matthews12:45
xG 0.48–0.45 (52%)attempts 10–10goals 2–1
- Moore – Komarov – Kapanen7:22
xG 0.21–0.30 (41%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Marleau – Kadri – Marner13:57
xG 0.63–0.90 (41%)attempts 10–19goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestPolak – Dermott12:32
xG 0.62–0.43 (59%)attempts 10–13goals 2–0
- Hainsey – Rielly13:23
xG 0.88–0.76 (54%)attempts 15–14goals 0–2
- Hainsey – Zaitsev2:35
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).