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Ice Lab

Mon, Feb 12, 2018·Gila River Arena, Glendale

Chicago Blackhawks 1, Arizona Coyotes 6

Away

Chicago Blackhawks

1

Final

Home

Arizona Coyotes

6

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Arizona Coyotes win this game 50% of the time.

ARI winsCHI wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
CHI010117011138
ARI2102725622

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 1:32ARIMax DomiAssists: Jakob Chychrun, Tobias Rieder · Tip-in, 0.06 xG0–1
  2. P1 9:22ARIClayton KellerGWGAssists: Derek Stepan · Wrist, 0.19 xG0–2
  3. P2 4:33CHIAlex DeBrincatPPAssists: Jonathan Toews, Lance Bouma · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–2
  4. P2 7:06ARIAlex GoligoskiAssists: Clayton Keller, Max Domi · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–3
  5. P2 9:33ARITobias RiederPPAssists: Christian Fischer · Wrist, 0.38 xG1–4
  6. P3 7:12ARINick CousinsAssists: Alex Goligoski, Kevin Connauton · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–5
  7. P3 15:38ARIChristian DvorakAssists: Christian Fischer, Zac Rinaldo · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–6
Penalties (14)
  1. P1 12:39ARIClayton Keller: High sticking2 min
  2. P1 14:35CHIAnthony Duclair: Boarding2 min
  3. P2 2:41ARIJakob Chychrun: Roughing2 min · PPG
  4. P2 2:41ARIMax Domi: Roughing2 min
  5. P2 2:41CHITommy Wingels: Roughing2 min
  6. P2 4:40ARIJakob Chychrun: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
  7. P2 5:19CHILance Bouma: Cross checking2 min
  8. P2 5:19ARIOliver Ekman-Larsson: Roughing2 min
  9. P2 9:00CHITomas Jurco: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
  10. P2 15:05CHIDavid Kampf: Tripping2 min
  11. P3 3:39ARIOliver Ekman-Larsson: Hooking2 min
  12. P3 9:25CHITomas Jurco: High sticking2 min
  13. P3 12:06ARIJordan Martinook: Boarding2 min
  14. P3 17:49ARINiklas Hjalmarsson: Hooking2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

CHI00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0ARI
46% to win54% to win
← CHI attackARI attack →
  1. P1 20:00Dvorak won the faceoff against Toews
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

CHIARI
38Shots on goal22
3.0Expected goals3.0
72Shot attempts44
34Faceoffs won27
6Power plays4
12Penalty minutes16
18Hits20
12Blocked shots18
5Giveaways7
2Takeaways5

Line combinations that worked

Model-based

Each team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.

Chicago Blackhawks

Forward lines

  1. bestToews – Saad – Duclair7:09

    xG 0.92–0.21 (81%)attempts 14–7goals 0–1

  2. Jurco – Hinostroza – Kampf9:49

    xG 0.28–0.05 (84%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0

  3. Bouma – Wingels – DeBrincat5:00

    xG 0.23–0.06 (78%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0

  4. Toews – Saad – DeBrincat2:22

    xG 0.00–0.17 (0%)attempts 1–2goals 0–1

Defence pairs

  1. bestSeabrook – Gustafsson10:14

    xG 0.99–0.09 (92%)attempts 16–6goals 0–0

  2. Murphy – Dahlstrom5:36

    xG 0.08–0.04 (64%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0

  3. Dahlstrom – Oesterle6:30

    xG 0.19–0.27 (41%)attempts 4–5goals 0–2

Arizona Coyotes

Forward lines

  1. bestRinaldo – Rieder – Domi7:11

    xG 0.26–0.07 (79%)attempts 7–6goals 1–0

  2. Panik – Dvorak – Fischer7:54

    xG 0.19–0.09 (67%)attempts 9–4goals 0–0

  3. Stepan – Perlini – Keller6:41

    xG 0.33–0.24 (58%)attempts 4–8goals 1–0

  4. Richardson – Cousins – Martinook7:32

    xG 0.09–0.52 (15%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0

Defence pairs

  1. bestGoligoski – Connauton8:56

    xG 0.21–0.15 (58%)attempts 8–6goals 1–0

  2. Goligoski – Hjalmarsson2:55

    xG 0.09–0.04 (68%)attempts 5–1goals 1–0

  3. Demers – Ekman-Larsson11:56

    xG 0.41–0.47 (47%)attempts 6–13goals 2–0

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

ARI 3.0 xGCHI 3.0 xG
0123P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

ARICHI

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

ARI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ARI is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.

Excitement 25/100 · #947 of 1271 this seasonSwing 0.79 · 5 goals in reachComeback index 54% (winner's lowest chance)
CHI 100%5050%50ARI 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +20 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Arizona Coyotes win this game 50% of the time.

ARI winsCHI wins

Simulated goal difference (ARI − CHI), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).