Tue, Feb 13, 2018·Little Caesars Arena, Detroit
Anaheim Ducks 1, Detroit Red Wings 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 75% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 016 | 05 | 112 | 133 |
| DET | 15 | 18 | 03 | 216 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 13:32DETDylan LarkinUnassisted · Backhand, 0.01 xG0–1
- P2 15:37DETFrans NielsenGWGAssists: Anthony Mantha, Mike Green · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–2
- P3 16:06ANAAdam HenriqueAssists: Kevin Bieksa, Rickard Rakell · Wrist, 0.36 xG1–2
Penalties (6)
- P1 2:17ANANick Ritchie: Roughing2 min
- P1 9:32DETMike Green: Hooking2 min
- P1 16:25DETDanny DeKeyser: Tripping2 min
- P3 5:06DETTyler Bertuzzi: Tripping2 min
- P3 9:21DETDarren Helm: Slashing2 min
- P3 17:39ANAKevin Bieksa: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kesler won the faceoff against Nielsen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestHenrique – Rakell – Kase2:06
xG 0.39–0.11 (79%)attempts 2–2goals 1–0
- Getzlaf – Perry – Rakell8:30
xG 0.38–0.23 (62%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
- Henrique – Ritchie – Kase9:09
xG 0.46–0.31 (60%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
- Getzlaf – Perry – Ritchie2:33
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBieksa – Fowler15:13
xG 0.90–0.46 (66%)attempts 17–13goals 1–1
- Manson – Lindholm14:15
xG 0.46–0.28 (63%)attempts 14–8goals 0–0
- Beauchemin – Montour10:15
xG 0.30–0.47 (39%)attempts 9–11goals 0–1
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestNielsen – Abdelkader – Helm7:30
xG 0.43–0.06 (88%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Frk – Athanasiou – Bertuzzi2:22
xG 0.18–0.06 (75%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Zetterberg – Nyquist – Mantha14:37
xG 0.61–0.59 (51%)attempts 15–12goals 0–0
- Tatar – Athanasiou – Larkin3:19
xG 0.01–0.27 (3%)attempts 3–6goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestJensen – DeKeyser10:23
xG 0.17–0.04 (82%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Green – DeKeyser3:54
xG 0.19–0.07 (74%)attempts 3–2goals 1–0
- Daley – Ericsson15:15
xG 0.49–0.53 (48%)attempts 7–18goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Anaheim Ducks win this game 75% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).