Sat, Feb 17, 2018·Canadian Tire Centre, Ottawa
New York Rangers 3, Ottawa Senators 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 111 | 113 | 114 | 338 |
| OTT | 212 | 28 | 213 | 633 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:03OTTMark StoneAssists: Derick Brassard, Zack Smith · Snap, 0.10 xG0–1
- P1 12:07OTTJohnny OduyaAssists: Erik Karlsson, Matt Duchene · Snap, 0.04 xG0–2
- P1 16:01NYRMichael GrabnerAssists: Ryan Sproul, Pavel Buchnevich · Wrist, 0.26 xG1–2
- P2 11:59OTTMatt DucheneAssists: Cody Ceci, Thomas Chabot · Deflected, 0.12 xG1–3
- P2 14:31NYRMika ZibanejadPPAssists: Mats Zuccarello, J.T. Miller · Wrist, 0.19 xG2–3
- P2 18:53OTTDerick BrassardGWGAssists: Mark Borowiecki, Zack Smith · Tip-in, 0.16 xG2–4
- P3 7:27OTTThomas ChabotAssists: Derick Brassard, Mark Stone · Wrap-around, 0.03 xG2–5
- P3 15:11NYRMichael GrabnerAssists: Kevin Hayes · Snap, 0.06 xG3–5
- P3 17:15OTTMagnus PaajarviAssists: Cody Ceci, Jean-Gabriel Pageau · Wrist, 0.48 xG3–6
Penalties (4)
- P2 4:15NYRMats Zuccarello: Slashing2 min
- P2 13:25OTTJohnny Oduya: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P3 0:09NYRNick Holden: Slashing2 min
- P3 10:55OTTJohnny Oduya: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Pageau won the faceoff against Zibanejad
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestGrabner – Miller – Buchnevich7:29
xG 0.68–0.43 (61%)attempts 10–7goals 1–1
- Nash – Zuccarello – Zibanejad9:04
xG 0.25–0.07 (78%)attempts 14–4goals 0–0
- Desharnais – Carey – Holland3:31
xG 0.12–0.05 (71%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Nash – Zibanejad – Buchnevich3:40
xG 0.17–0.29 (37%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSproul – Gilmour12:02
xG 0.86–0.59 (59%)attempts 15–13goals 1–1
- Holden – DeAngelo18:23
xG 0.59–0.61 (49%)attempts 26–17goals 1–2
- Skjei – Pionk15:03
xG 0.37–0.95 (28%)attempts 16–13goals 0–2
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestPyatt – Paajarvi – Pageau10:04
xG 0.55–0.09 (86%)attempts 8–9goals 1–0
- Dumont – McCormick – Shore8:07
xG 0.29–0.14 (67%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
- Gaborik – Hoffman – Duchene12:31
xG 0.56–0.56 (50%)attempts 11–20goals 2–1
- Brassard – Smith – Stone10:48
xG 0.64–0.74 (46%)attempts 14–9goals 3–1
Defence pairs
- bestBorowiecki – Ceci6:30
xG 0.45–0.07 (87%)attempts 6–8goals 2–0
- Ceci – Chabot9:02
xG 0.45–0.12 (79%)attempts 12–8goals 2–1
- Oduya – Ceci2:53
xG 0.32–0.05 (87%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).