Sat, Feb 17, 2018·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
Toronto Maple Leafs 3, Pittsburgh Penguins 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 213 | 111 | 08 | 332 |
| PIT | 212 | 116 | 211 | 539 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:23PITCarl HagelinAssists: Bryan Rust, Evgeni Malkin · Tip-in, 0.11 xG0–1
- P1 6:41TORConnor BrownAssists: James van Riemsdyk, Tyler Bozak · Wrist, 0.20 xG1–1
- P1 10:40TORTyler BozakAssists: Travis Dermott, Roman Polak · Backhand, 0.09 xG2–1
- P1 11:51PITEvgeni MalkinAssists: Bryan Rust, Carl Hagelin · Wrist, 0.13 xG2–2
- P2 5:21PITZachary Aston-ReeseAssists: Ian Cole, Kris Letang · Backhand, 0.24 xG2–3
- P2 15:46TORPatrick MarleauPPAssists: Connor Brown, Auston Matthews · Wrist, 0.16 xG3–3
- P3 7:56PITOlli MaattaGWGAssists: Matt Hunwick, Ryan Reaves · Slap, 0.02 xG3–4
- P3 16:36PITBryan RustAssists: Evgeni Malkin, Kris Letang · Wrist, 0.30 xG3–5
Penalties (3)
- P2 6:52PITJake Guentzel: Tripping2 min
- P2 14:58PITIan Cole: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 18:11TORNikita Zaitsev: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nylander won the faceoff against Crosby
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestvan Riemsdyk – Bozak – Brown12:06
xG 0.80–0.22 (78%)attempts 12–9goals 2–0
- Hyman – Nylander – Matthews13:08
xG 1.06–0.49 (68%)attempts 14–13goals 0–0
- Moore – Komarov – Kapanen7:18
xG 0.02–0.12 (12%)attempts 2–5goals 0–1
- Marleau – Kadri – Marner12:52
xG 0.39–1.15 (25%)attempts 12–22goals 0–3
Defence pairs
- bestHainsey – Rielly15:01
xG 1.12–0.93 (55%)attempts 13–21goals 0–1
- Polak – Dermott15:03
xG 0.49–0.53 (48%)attempts 15–14goals 1–1
- Gardiner – Zaitsev18:14
xG 0.73–0.81 (47%)attempts 14–16goals 1–2
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestMalkin – Kessel – Hagelin3:06
xG 0.45–0.11 (80%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Malkin – Hagelin – Rust12:30
xG 0.75–0.53 (58%)attempts 15–13goals 3–1
- Crosby – Sheary – Aston-Reese10:44
xG 0.59–0.67 (47%)attempts 14–7goals 1–0
- Kessel – Sheahan – Guentzel11:52
xG 0.34–0.43 (44%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCole – Oleksiak15:15
xG 0.91–0.45 (67%)attempts 20–8goals 2–0
- Letang – Dumoulin19:11
xG 1.00–1.15 (46%)attempts 20–21goals 1–1
- Hunwick – Maatta14:56
xG 0.16–0.68 (19%)attempts 8–11goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).