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Ice Lab

Sat, Feb 17, 2018·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh

Toronto Maple Leafs 3, Pittsburgh Penguins 5

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 53% of the time.

PIT winsTOR wins

Play-by-play

Model-based

Every event the NHL recorded. Goals show how much they moved the win probability, and who was on the ice.

  1. P1 0:00Period start
  2. P1 2:59Shot by Rielly, saved by Murray
  3. P1 3:00Shot by Hyman, saved by Murray
  4. P1 3:07Shot by Hagelin, saved by Andersen
  5. P1 3:23Goal by Hagelin (Rust, Malkin)+20 pts WP

    On ice: PIT Malkin, Cole, Hagelin, Rust, Oleksiak · TOR Marleau, Gardiner, Kadri, Marner, Zaitsev

  6. P1 4:47Shot by Simon, saved by Andersen
  7. P1 6:23Shot by Marner, saved by Murray
  8. P1 6:38Shot by Brown, saved by Murray
  9. P1 6:41Goal by Brown (van Riemsdyk, Bozak)+20 pts WP

    On ice: PIT Malkin, Hunwick, Hagelin, Rust, Maatta · TOR van Riemsdyk, Gardiner, Bozak, Brown, Zaitsev

  10. P1 7:09Shot by Letang, saved by Andersen
  11. P1 7:10Shot by Kessel, saved by Andersen
  12. P1 7:43Shot by Hainsey, saved by Murray
  13. P1 10:36Shot by van Riemsdyk, saved by Murray
  14. P1 10:40Goal by Bozak (Dermott, Polak)+17 pts WP

    On ice: PIT Letang, Reaves, Dumoulin, Rowney, Simon · TOR Polak, van Riemsdyk, Bozak, Brown, Dermott

  15. P1 10:37Shot by Dermott, saved by Murray
  16. P1 11:08Shot by Dumoulin, saved by Andersen
  17. P1 11:51Goal by Malkin (Rust, Hagelin)+17 pts WP

    On ice: PIT Malkin, Cole, Hagelin, Rust, Oleksiak · TOR Marleau, Gardiner, Kadri, Marner, Zaitsev

  18. P1 13:21Shot by Sheahan, saved by Andersen
  19. P1 13:36Shot by Hyman, saved by Murray
  20. P1 15:20Shot by Reaves, saved by Andersen
  21. P1 15:33Shot by Dermott, saved by Murray
  22. P1 18:06Shot by Guentzel, saved by Andersen
  23. P1 18:40Shot by Bozak, saved by Murray
  24. P1 18:57Shot by Dumoulin, saved by Andersen
  25. P1 19:08Shot by Gardiner, saved by Murray
  26. P1 19:46Shot by Cole, saved by Andersen
  27. P1 0:00Period end
  28. P2 0:00Period start
  29. P2 1:00Shot by Letang, saved by Andersen
  30. P2 1:13Shot by Hagelin, saved by Andersen
  31. P2 3:43Shot by Aston-Reese, saved by Andersen
  32. P2 3:45Shot by Crosby, saved by Andersen
  33. P2 4:59Shot by Aston-Reese, saved by Andersen
  34. P2 5:13Shot by Letang, saved by Andersen
  35. P2 5:19Shot by Cole, saved by Andersen
  36. P2 5:21Goal by Aston-Reese (Cole, Letang)+22 pts WP

    On ice: PIT Crosby, Letang, Cole, Sheary, Aston-Reese · TOR Marleau, Hainsey, Kadri, Rielly, Marner

  37. P2 5:49Shot by Hagelin, saved by Andersen
  38. P2 6:52Guentzel: Tripping (2 min)

    On ice: PIT Kessel, Cole, Sheahan, Oleksiak, Guentzel · TOR Moore, Komarov, Gardiner, Kapanen, Zaitsev

  39. P2 8:59Shot by Sheahan, saved by Andersen
  40. P2 10:54Shot by Kessel, saved by Andersen
  41. P2 11:02Shot by Brown, saved by Murray
  42. P2 11:47Shot by Matthews, saved by Murray
  43. P2 12:40Shot by Letang, saved by Andersen
  44. P2 12:51Shot by Hyman, saved by Murray
  45. P2 13:09Shot by Kadri, saved by Murray
  46. P2 13:17Shot by Marleau, saved by Murray
  47. P2 13:14Shot by Dermott, saved by Murray
  48. P2 13:39Shot by Nylander, saved by Murray
  49. P2 14:43Shot by Brown, saved by Murray
  50. P2 14:58Cole: Slashing (2 min)

    On ice: PIT Kessel, Cole, Sheahan, Oleksiak, Guentzel · TOR van Riemsdyk, Gardiner, Bozak, Brown, Zaitsev

  51. P2 15:46Goal by Marleau (Brown, Matthews)4v5+23 pts WP

    On ice: PIT Letang, Dumoulin, Rust, Rowney · TOR Marleau, Gardiner, Brown, Nylander, Matthews

  52. P2 16:02Shot by Hyman, saved by Murray
  53. P2 16:17Shot by Hunwick, saved by Andersen
  54. P2 16:44Shot by Oleksiak, saved by Andersen
  55. P2 16:47Shot by Cole, saved by Andersen
  56. P2 18:02Shot by Kadri, saved by Murray
  57. P2 18:11Zaitsev: Interference (2 min)

    On ice: PIT Crosby, Letang, Dumoulin, Simon, Aston-Reese · TOR Marleau, Gardiner, Kadri, Marner, Zaitsev

  58. P2 18:43Shot by Crosby, saved by Andersen5v4
  59. P2 0:00Period end5v4
  60. P3 0:00Period start
  61. P3 2:32Shot by Oleksiak, saved by Andersen
  62. P3 5:56Shot by Hagelin, saved by Andersen
  63. P3 6:41Shot by Hyman, saved by Murray
  64. P3 7:56Goal by Maatta (Hunwick, Reaves)+28 pts WP

    On ice: PIT Hunwick, Reaves, Maatta, Rowney, Sheary · TOR Moore, Polak, Komarov, Kapanen, Dermott

  65. P3 10:15Shot by Letang, saved by Andersen
  66. P3 10:38Shot by Hainsey, saved by Murray
  67. P3 10:43Shot by Kadri, saved by Murray
  68. P3 11:18Shot by Gardiner, saved by Murray
  69. P3 11:56Shot by Brown, saved by Murray
  70. P3 12:06Shot by Oleksiak, saved by Andersen
  71. P3 14:12Shot by Aston-Reese, saved by Andersen
  72. P3 14:27Shot by Kessel, saved by Andersen
  73. P3 15:27Shot by Kessel, saved by Andersen
  74. P3 16:23Shot by Letang, saved by Andersen
  75. P3 16:35Shot by Letang, saved by Andersen
  76. P3 16:36Goal by Rust (Malkin, Letang)+7 pts WP

    On ice: PIT Malkin, Letang, Hagelin, Dumoulin, Rust · TOR Hainsey, Bozak, Hyman, Brown, Zaitsev

  77. P3 18:00Shot by van Riemsdyk, saved by Murray5v6
  78. P3 18:59Shot by Marner, saved by Murray5v6
  79. P3 19:04Shot by Rielly, saved by Murray5v6
  80. P3 0:00Period end5v6
  81. P3 0:00Final5v6