Sun, Feb 18, 2018·Little Caesars Arena, Detroit
Toronto Maple Leafs 3, Detroit Red Wings 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 015 | 212 | 17 | 334 |
| DET | 012 | 18 | 19 | 229 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 5:51DETAnthony ManthaPPAssists: Gustav Nyquist, Tomas Tatar · Deflected, 0.16 xG0–1
- P2 7:02TORJames van RiemsdykAssists: Jake Gardiner, Tyler Bozak · Tip-in, 0.09 xG1–1
- P2 7:20TORMitch MarnerAssists: Nazem Kadri · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–1
- P3 9:17DETHenrik ZetterbergAssists: Gustav Nyquist, Darren Helm · Deflected, 0.08 xG2–2
- P3 19:29TORAuston MatthewsGWGAssists: William Nylander, Zach Hyman · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–2
Penalties (3)
- P2 4:05TORNikita Zaitsev: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 10:39DETXavier Ouellet: Slashing2 min
- P2 16:00DETDylan Larkin: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Larkin won the faceoff against Bozak
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestHyman – Nylander – Matthews13:58
xG 0.98–0.34 (74%)attempts 21–9goals 1–0
- Marleau – Kadri – Marner12:15
xG 0.47–0.31 (60%)attempts 11–7goals 1–0
- Moore – Komarov – Kapanen8:00
xG 0.43–0.36 (55%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- van Riemsdyk – Bozak – Brown13:41
xG 0.25–0.25 (49%)attempts 9–10goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestGardiner – Carrick2:10
xG 0.19–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Carrick – Dermott12:53
xG 0.49–0.45 (52%)attempts 12–9goals 0–1
- Gardiner – Zaitsev17:08
xG 0.59–0.58 (50%)attempts 14–11goals 1–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestZetterberg – Nyquist – Mantha14:45
xG 0.82–0.38 (68%)attempts 15–11goals 1–0
- Tatar – Athanasiou – Larkin13:45
xG 0.60–0.54 (53%)attempts 13–14goals 0–2
- Abdelkader – Glendening – Bertuzzi2:06
xG 0.04–0.09 (29%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Nielsen – Abdelkader – Helm10:44
xG 0.23–0.47 (33%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestJensen – DeKeyser12:57
xG 0.75–0.41 (65%)attempts 16–11goals 1–1
- Kronwall – Witkowski3:10
xG 0.17–0.02 (91%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Ericsson – Jensen2:13
xG 0.02–0.10 (18%)attempts 1–3goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).