Thu, Feb 22, 2018·Little Caesars Arena, Detroit
Buffalo Sabres 3, Detroit Red Wings 2 (OT)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 59% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 114 | 110 | 02 | 14 | 330 |
| DET | 010 | 116 | 18 | 03 | 237 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:39BUFRasmus RistolainenAssists: Nathan Beaulieu, Johan Larsson · Wrist, 0.01 xG1–0
- P2 3:42DETJonathan EricssonUnassisted · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–1
- P2 13:09BUFEvander KanePPAssists: Jason Pominville, Rasmus Ristolainen · Wrap-around, 0.08 xG2–1
- P3 18:35DETJustin AbdelkaderPPAssists: Frans Nielsen, Henrik Zetterberg · Wrist, 0.32 xG2–2
- OT 4:59BUFMarco ScandellaGWGAssists: Johan Larsson, Sam Reinhart · Snap, 0.11 xG3–2
Penalties (6)
- P1 8:05DETLuke Glendening: Tripping2 min
- P2 0:40BUFCasey Nelson: Hooking2 min
- P2 11:32DETNiklas Kronwall: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P2 17:06BUFNick Baptiste: Hooking2 min
- P3 2:29DETDylan Larkin: Tripping2 min
- P3 17:04BUFJohan Larsson: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nielsen won the faceoff against O'Reilly
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestO'Reilly – Kane – Reinhart13:23
xG 0.88–0.35 (71%)attempts 14–18goals 0–0
- Pouliot – Josefson – Baptiste6:27
xG 0.03–0.09 (23%)attempts 3–8goals 0–0
- Okposo – Girgensons – Rodrigues6:15
xG 0.01–0.10 (10%)attempts 1–7goals 0–0
- Pominville – Larsson – Wilson10:52
xG 0.08–0.30 (21%)attempts 7–10goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestScandella – Nelson16:47
xG 0.62–0.20 (75%)attempts 8–17goals 0–0
- Gorges – Antipin9:13
xG 0.61–0.26 (70%)attempts 6–10goals 0–1
- Beaulieu – Ristolainen15:54
xG 0.23–0.31 (42%)attempts 14–15goals 1–0
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestZetterberg – Nyquist – Mantha11:48
xG 0.38–0.05 (88%)attempts 12–4goals 0–0
- Tatar – Athanasiou – Larkin7:31
xG 0.17–0.03 (85%)attempts 9–1goals 0–0
- Tatar – Bertuzzi – Larkin2:11
xG 0.06–0.13 (32%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Nielsen – Helm – Glendening3:10
xG 0.07–0.16 (29%)attempts 3–3goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestJensen – DeKeyser17:49
xG 0.43–0.25 (63%)attempts 23–8goals 0–0
- Kronwall – Ouellet12:30
xG 0.36–0.50 (42%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
- Daley – Ericsson12:49
xG 0.14–0.70 (17%)attempts 10–12goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 59% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).