Tue, Feb 27, 2018·TD Garden, Boston
Carolina Hurricanes 3, Boston Bruins 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 51% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 39 | 015 | 08 | 00 | 332 |
| BOS | 211 | 112 | 08 | 11 | 432 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:01CARBrock McGinnPPAssists: Jeff Skinner, Justin Faulk · Backhand, 0.14 xG1–0
- P1 11:41BOSRick NashAssists: David Krejci, Jake DeBrusk · Backhand, 0.10 xG1–1
- P1 13:09CARTeuvo TeravainenPPAssists: Justin Faulk, Victor Rask · Wrist, 0.03 xG2–1
- P1 19:04CARSebastian AhoAssists: Teuvo Teravainen, Derek Ryan · Backhand, 0.09 xG3–1
- P1 19:57BOSRiley NashAssists: Tommy Wingels, Torey Krug · Backhand, 0.08 xG3–2
- P2 5:34BOSTommy WingelsAssists: Jake DeBrusk, Charlie McAvoy · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–3
- OT 1:08BOSCharlie McAvoyGWGAssists: Riley Nash · Wrist, 0.06 xG3–4
Penalties (4)
- P1 7:28CARTrevor van Riemsdyk: Holding2 min
- P1 8:05BOSBrad Marchand: Holding the stick2 min · PPG
- P1 11:48BOSDavid Pastrnak: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
- P1 15:55CARDerek Ryan: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nash won the faceoff against Lindholm
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- Teravainen – Lindholm – Aho5:51
xG 0.24–0.24 (50%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0
- Stempniak – Skinner – Rask2:43
xG 0.07–0.11 (37%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Skinner – Rask – Di Giuseppe3:37
xG 0.08–0.12 (38%)attempts 3–3goals 0–1
- Skinner – Teravainen – Lindholm3:26
xG 0.04–0.12 (26%)attempts 1–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPesce – Hanifin17:11
xG 0.58–0.50 (54%)attempts 15–16goals 0–1
- Faulk – Slavin16:41
xG 0.68–0.74 (48%)attempts 16–15goals 0–1
- van Riemsdyk – Fleury14:00
xG 0.26–0.69 (28%)attempts 9–17goals 0–0
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestKuraly – Schaller – Acciari10:16
xG 0.49–0.31 (61%)attempts 12–9goals 0–1
- Backes – Marchand – Wingels2:38
xG 0.07–0.09 (44%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Nash – Krejci – DeBrusk10:23
xG 0.51–0.56 (47%)attempts 11–11goals 1–0
- Marchand – Nash – Pastrnak10:16
xG 0.18–0.24 (43%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKrug – Carlo12:02
xG 0.82–0.42 (66%)attempts 18–13goals 1–0
- Miller – Krug2:22
xG 0.12–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Miller – Grzelcyk15:17
xG 0.35–0.40 (46%)attempts 6–12goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 51% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).