Wed, Feb 28, 2018·Amalie Arena, Tampa
Buffalo Sabres 2, Tampa Bay Lightning 1 (OT)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 56% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 011 | 09 | 110 | 14 | 234 |
| TBL | 16 | 06 | 010 | 00 | 122 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 18:03TBLCory ConacherAssists: Dan Girardi, Yanni Gourde · Wrist, 0.18 xG0–1
- P3 11:47BUFEvan RodriguesAssists: Jason Pominville · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–1
- OT 1:26BUFJason PominvillePPGWGAssists: Rasmus Ristolainen, Ryan O'Reilly · Slap, 0.06 xG2–1
Penalties (6)
- P1 14:42TBLCory Conacher: Hooking2 min
- P3 4:57TBLYanni Gourde: Hooking2 min
- P3 8:06BUFJustin Falk: Slashing2 min
- P3 14:53TBLJ.T. Miller: Tripping2 min
- P3 19:40TBLAdam Erne: Illegal check to head2 min · PPG
- OT 1:26TBLAndrei Vasilevskiy: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00O'Reilly won the faceoff against Point
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestPominville – Wilson – Rodrigues10:48
xG 0.47–0.33 (59%)attempts 15–10goals 1–0
- Pouliot – Larsson – Baptiste9:32
xG 0.22–0.26 (45%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
- O'Reilly – Girgensons – Reinhart16:37
xG 0.32–0.43 (42%)attempts 12–9goals 0–0
- Josefson – Nolan – Griffith8:09
xG 0.17–0.31 (36%)attempts 6–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestScandella – Ristolainen18:58
xG 0.50–0.26 (66%)attempts 15–11goals 0–0
- Nelson – Antipin14:20
xG 0.59–0.58 (51%)attempts 20–11goals 0–1
- Falk – Beaulieu11:01
xG 0.12–0.34 (27%)attempts 4–13goals 1–0
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestKunitz – Conacher – Gourde6:17
xG 0.48–0.11 (81%)attempts 9–3goals 1–0
- Johnson – Miller – Erne15:54
xG 0.57–0.24 (71%)attempts 12–9goals 0–0
- Killorn – Gourde – Point3:18
xG 0.03–0.10 (23%)attempts 5–3goals 0–1
- Callahan – Bournival – Paquette5:56
xG 0.00–0.10 (4%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGirardi – Sergachev12:29
xG 0.60–0.10 (86%)attempts 15–5goals 1–0
- Stralman – Sergachev2:22
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Girardi – Hedman4:56
xG 0.02–0.11 (16%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 56% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).