Fri, Mar 2, 2018·T-Mobile Arena, Paradise
Ottawa Senators 5, Vegas Golden Knights 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 18 | 317 | 113 | 538 |
| VGK | 23 | 018 | 28 | 429 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:58VGKReilly SmithAssists: Jonathan Marchessault, William Karlsson · Backhand, 0.14 xG0–1
- P1 2:19OTTMark StoneAssists: Bobby Ryan · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–1
- P1 18:22VGKColin MillerPPAssists: Brad Hunt, Erik Haula · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–2
- P2 3:57OTTBobby RyanAssists: Mark Stone, Erik Karlsson · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–2
- P2 10:45OTTMatt DuchenePPAssists: Thomas Chabot, Mike Hoffman · Snap, 0.07 xG3–2
- P2 14:41OTTJean-Gabriel PageauAssists: Erik Karlsson, Bobby Ryan · Slap, 0.03 xG4–2
- P3 3:35VGKWilliam KarlssonAssists: Jonathan Marchessault, Reilly Smith · Wrist, 0.05 xG4–3
- P3 7:55VGKRyan CarpenterSHAssists: Colin Miller, Tomas Nosek · Wrist, 0.08 xG4–4
- P3 8:51OTTAlexandre BurrowsGWGAssists: Erik Karlsson, Max McCormick · Deflected, 0.10 xG5–4
Penalties (7)
- P1 5:24VGKJon Merrill: Tripping2 min
- P1 7:40VGKErik Haula: High sticking2 min
- P1 16:27OTTFredrik Claesson: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 9:28VGKTomas Nosek: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 18:31OTTMatt Duchene: Interference2 min
- P3 6:08VGKCody Eakin: Holding2 min
- P3 11:47VGKTomas Nosek: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Haula won the faceoff against Pageau
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestBurrows – O'Brien – McCormick7:03
xG 0.96–0.14 (87%)attempts 8–6goals 1–1
- Ryan – Stone – Pageau10:15
xG 0.76–0.32 (70%)attempts 12–9goals 3–0
- Smith – Paajarvi – Dzingel9:21
xG 0.09–0.21 (31%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Pyatt – Hoffman – Duchene7:42
xG 0.31–0.49 (38%)attempts 9–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBorowiecki – Harpur5:45
xG 1.08–0.14 (88%)attempts 10–2goals 0–0
- Karlsson – Claesson15:14
xG 0.70–0.20 (78%)attempts 17–14goals 2–0
- Ceci – Chabot7:40
xG 0.46–0.24 (66%)attempts 9–11goals 1–0
Vegas Golden Knights
Forward lines
- bestSmith – Karlsson – Marchessault12:03
xG 0.50–0.38 (57%)attempts 11–11goals 2–0
- Reaves – Hyka – Nosek3:38
xG 0.09–0.01 (88%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Reaves – Hyka – Carpenter3:36
xG 0.03–0.01 (70%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Eakin – Carpenter – Tuch4:31
xG 0.05–0.33 (12%)attempts 3–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMcNabb – Miller3:55
xG 0.14–0.01 (92%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Merrill – Miller2:26
xG 0.13–0.12 (52%)attempts 5–3goals 1–0
- McNabb – Theodore7:07
xG 0.29–0.30 (49%)attempts 10–5goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VGK's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VGK is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VGK − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).