Thu, Mar 8, 2018·Amalie Arena, Tampa
New York Rangers 3, Tampa Bay Lightning 5
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 05 | 115 | 210 | 330 |
| TBL | 221 | 315 | 09 | 545 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:31TBLCedric PaquetteAssists: Chris Kunitz, Ryan Callahan · Wrist, 0.13 xG0–1
- P1 7:50TBLAdam ErneAssists: Anthony Cirelli · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–2
- P2 1:53TBLAnthony CirelliAssists: Mikhail Sergachev, Alex Killorn · Tip-in, 0.08 xG0–3
- P2 7:10NYRRyan SpoonerAssists: Kevin Hayes, Jesper Fast · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–3
- P2 12:35TBLChris KunitzGWGAssists: Anthony Cirelli · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–4
- P2 17:30TBLTyler JohnsonAssists: Nikita Kucherov, Mikhail Sergachev · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–5
- P3 3:27NYRMats ZuccarelloAssists: Ryan Spooner · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–5
- P3 17:41NYRKevin HayesAssists: Rob O'Gara, Ryan Spooner · Tip-in, 0.07 xG3–5
Penalties (7)
- P1 3:14NYRChris Kreider: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 11:20NYRVladislav Namestnikov: Slashing2 min
- P1 17:28TBLMikhail Sergachev: Interference2 min
- P2 3:05NYRJohn Gilmour: Holding2 min
- P2 7:36TBLRyan Callahan: Tripping2 min
- P2 8:27NYRMats Zuccarello: Tripping2 min
- P2 15:04TBLSteven Stamkos: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Namestnikov won the faceoff against Johnson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestZuccarello – Namestnikov – Vesey7:14
xG 0.61–0.32 (65%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Zibanejad – Namestnikov – Buchnevich3:22
xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Spooner – Hayes – Fast6:56
xG 0.28–0.56 (34%)attempts 5–9goals 2–2
- McLeod – Desharnais – Carey7:22
xG 0.20–0.58 (25%)attempts 4–16goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Staal – Pionk14:30
xG 0.56–0.69 (45%)attempts 11–22goals 0–1
- O'Gara – DeAngelo10:39
xG 0.42–0.58 (42%)attempts 10–11goals 2–1
- Skjei – Gilmour11:33
xG 0.33–0.76 (31%)attempts 9–14goals 0–2
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestKillorn – Erne – Cirelli10:16
xG 0.58–0.17 (78%)attempts 14–6goals 2–0
- Stamkos – Johnson – Kucherov11:39
xG 0.86–0.63 (58%)attempts 19–10goals 1–2
- Kunitz – Callahan – Paquette8:03
xG 0.44–0.23 (66%)attempts 12–5goals 1–1
- Miller – Gourde – Point9:14
xG 0.22–0.31 (42%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHedman – Dotchin13:27
xG 1.06–0.05 (96%)attempts 23–3goals 2–0
- Stralman – Sergachev3:43
xG 0.50–0.05 (91%)attempts 7–1goals 1–1
- Stralman – Hedman2:23
xG 0.07–0.07 (50%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).