Sat, Mar 10, 2018·Air Canada Centre, Toronto
Pittsburgh Penguins 2, Toronto Maple Leafs 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 011 | 012 | 217 | 240 |
| TOR | 27 | 29 | 110 | 526 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:10TORKasperi KapanenAssists: Tyler Bozak, Josh Leivo · Wrist, 0.26 xG0–1
- P1 19:13TORNazem KadriAssists: Morgan Rielly, Leo Komarov · Tip-in, 0.05 xG0–2
- P2 11:35TORNazem KadriPPGWGAssists: Mitch Marner, Morgan Rielly · Snap, 0.25 xG0–3
- P2 18:24TORMitch MarnerPPAssists: Morgan Rielly · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–4
- P3 16:24PITSidney CrosbyAssists: Jake Guentzel, Chad Ruhwedel · Backhand, 0.04 xG1–4
- P3 17:32PITPatric HornqvistAssists: Evgeni Malkin, Kris Letang · Tip-in, 0.16 xG2–4
- P3 19:02TORPatrick MarleauENAssists: Ron Hainsey · Wrist, 0.67 xG2–5
Penalties (7)
- P1 3:59TORLeo Komarov: Hooking2 min
- P1 16:07TORConnor Carrick: Holding2 min
- P2 2:01TORPatrick Marleau: Hooking2 min
- P2 11:26PITJamie Oleksiak: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 16:20TORRoman Polak: Roughing2 min
- P2 16:20PITEvgeni Malkin: Roughing2 min
- P2 17:56PITBrian Dumoulin: Interference goalkeeper2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Malkin won the faceoff against Nylander
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestMalkin – Hornqvist – Hagelin13:02
xG 0.46–0.16 (74%)attempts 16–3goals 0–0
- Crosby – Guentzel – Sheary11:41
xG 0.62–0.37 (63%)attempts 16–9goals 1–1
- Kuhnhackl – Rowney – Jooris8:27
xG 0.18–0.09 (66%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Brassard – Kessel – Sheahan9:34
xG 0.40–0.44 (47%)attempts 13–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMaatta – Ruhwedel13:41
xG 0.70–0.39 (64%)attempts 15–10goals 1–0
- Letang – Dumoulin14:52
xG 0.63–0.39 (62%)attempts 18–6goals 0–1
- Schultz – Oleksiak16:25
xG 0.45–0.41 (52%)attempts 16–12goals 0–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- Plekanec – Leivo – Kapanen5:39
xG 0.01–0.09 (12%)attempts 1–6goals 0–0
- Hyman – Nylander – Marner12:58
xG 0.24–0.40 (38%)attempts 6–15goals 0–0
- Marleau – Komarov – Kadri11:31
xG 0.47–0.78 (38%)attempts 8–17goals 1–1
- van Riemsdyk – Bozak – Brown9:45
xG 0.11–0.43 (20%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHainsey – Rielly11:37
xG 0.80–0.66 (55%)attempts 12–17goals 2–1
- Polak – Rielly2:06
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Carrick – Dermott13:14
xG 0.17–0.36 (33%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).