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Ice Lab

Tue, Mar 13, 2018·Amalie Arena, Tampa

Ottawa Senators 7, Tampa Bay Lightning 4

Away

Ottawa Senators

7

Final

Home

Tampa Bay Lightning

4

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 68% of the time.

TBL winsOTT wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
OTT31731214733
TBL11722118446

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 4:19TBLJ.T. MillerAssists: Nikita Kucherov, Steven Stamkos · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–1
  2. P1 7:47OTTMagnus PaajarviAssists: Tom Pyatt, Jean-Gabriel Pageau · Backhand, 0.15 xG1–1
  3. P1 10:47OTTRyan DzingelPPAssists: Marian Gaborik, Cody Ceci · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–1
  4. P1 11:24OTTTom PyattAssists: Cody Ceci, Mark Borowiecki · Tip-in, 0.07 xG3–1
  5. P2 2:03TBLJ.T. MillerPPAssists: Nikita Kucherov, Victor Hedman · Wrist, 0.30 xG3–2
  6. P2 7:18OTTMarian GaborikPPAssists: Ryan Dzingel, Alexandre Burrows · Wrist, 0.08 xG4–2
  7. P2 13:44OTTMike HoffmanGWGAssists: Erik Burgdoerfer, Matt Duchene · Wrist, 0.16 xG5–2
  8. P2 16:26TBLJ.T. MillerPPAssists: Steven Stamkos, Victor Hedman · Tip-in, 0.06 xG5–3
  9. P2 18:30OTTErik KarlssonUnassisted · Wrist, 0.02 xG6–3
  10. P3 3:46OTTMike HoffmanAssists: Erik Karlsson, Matt Duchene · Wrist, 0.06 xG7–3
  11. P3 12:44TBLRyan McDonaghAssists: Steven Stamkos, Nikita Kucherov · Wrist, 0.09 xG7–4
Penalties (8)
  1. P1 4:03TBLAdam Erne: Fighting5 min
  2. P1 4:03OTTMax McCormick: Fighting5 min
  3. P1 8:53TBLAnthony Cirelli: Hooking2 min · PPG
  4. P1 18:24OTTAlexandre Burrows: Interference2 min
  5. P2 0:39OTTMagnus Paajarvi: Tripping2 min · PPG
  6. P2 5:35TBLBraydon Coburn: Interference2 min · PPG
  7. P2 14:10OTTMarian Gaborik: Hooking2 min
  8. P2 15:28OTTZack Smith: Holding2 min · PPG

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

OTT00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0TBL
46% to win54% to win
← OTT attackTBL attack →
  1. P1 20:00Paquette won the faceoff against Smith
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

OTTTBL
33Shots on goal46
1.9Expected goals2.8
47Shot attempts76
30Faceoffs won38
2Power plays4
13Penalty minutes9
19Hits17
16Blocked shots9
6Giveaways7
4Takeaways3

Line combinations that worked

Model-based

Each team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.

Ottawa Senators

Forward lines

  1. Hoffman – Duchene – Dzingel14:50

    xG 0.74–0.78 (49%)attempts 16–19goals 2–1

  2. Pyatt – Smith – Paajarvi10:03

    xG 0.23–0.38 (38%)attempts 6–14goals 1–1

  3. Gaborik – O'Brien – McCormick6:25

    xG 0.07–0.25 (21%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0

  4. Burrows – Ryan – Pageau11:53

    xG 0.15–0.44 (25%)attempts 4–12goals 1–0

Defence pairs

  1. bestBorowiecki – Burgdoerfer8:45

    xG 0.44–0.21 (68%)attempts 7–9goals 1–0

  2. Karlsson – Harpur2:31

    xG 0.08–0.06 (58%)attempts 7–1goals 1–0

  3. Burgdoerfer – Harpur7:02

    xG 0.20–0.24 (45%)attempts 6–4goals 0–0

Tampa Bay Lightning

Forward lines

  1. bestStamkos – Kucherov – Miller15:01

    xG 1.06–0.53 (67%)attempts 24–11goals 2–2

  2. Johnson – Gourde – Point10:51

    xG 0.60–0.38 (61%)attempts 17–11goals 0–0

  3. Killorn – Gourde – Cirelli3:06

    xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0

  4. Killorn – Erne – Cirelli5:44

    xG 0.09–0.11 (47%)attempts 2–4goals 0–1

Defence pairs

  1. bestStralman – Hedman12:56

    xG 0.79–0.34 (70%)attempts 18–6goals 1–1

  2. McDonagh – Sergachev8:53

    xG 0.37–0.02 (95%)attempts 14–2goals 1–0

  3. Coburn – Stralman3:24

    xG 0.20–0.06 (77%)attempts 5–3goals 0–1

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

TBL 2.8 xGOTT 1.9 xG
0123P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

TBLOTT

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.

Excitement 81/100 · #244 of 1271 this seasonSwing 1.56 · 10 goals in reachComeback index 26% (winner's lowest chance)
OTT 100%5050%50TBL 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +20 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 68% of the time.

TBL winsOTT wins

Simulated goal difference (TBL − OTT), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).