Wed, Mar 14, 2018·Air Canada Centre, Toronto
Dallas Stars 5, Toronto Maple Leafs 6 (SO)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 73% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 29 | 216 | 13 | 07 | 0 | 535 |
| TOR | 211 | 04 | 315 | 03 | 2 | 633 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:28TORNazem KadriUnassisted · Tip-in, 0.08 xG0–1
- P1 4:53TORJames van RiemsdykAssists: Tyler Bozak, Connor Carrick · Wrist, 0.32 xG0–2
- P1 14:29DALJamie BennAssists: Tyler Seguin, Esa Lindell · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–2
- P1 16:01DALRadek FaksaAssists: Greg Pateryn, Tyler Pitlick · Tip-in, 0.11 xG2–2
- P2 4:30DALTyler SeguinUnassisted · Wrist, 0.33 xG3–2
- P2 14:03DALRemi ElieAssists: Devin Shore, John Klingberg · Snap, 0.06 xG4–2
- P3 5:13TORJames van RiemsdykAssists: Tyler Bozak, Travis Dermott · Wrist, 0.24 xG4–3
- P3 10:43TORJames van RiemsdykPPAssists: Mitch Marner, Morgan Rielly · Wrist, 0.18 xG4–4
- P3 13:18DALBrett RitchieAssists: Tyler Seguin, Jamie Benn · Wrist, 0.02 xG5–4
- P3 19:44TORPatrick MarleauAssists: Mitch Marner, Jake Gardiner · Tip-in, 0.07 xG5–5
Shootout
- 1. TOR Tyler Bozak scored
- 2. DAL Tyler Seguin stopped
- 3. TOR James van Riemsdyk stopped
- 4. DAL Alexander Radulov stopped
- 5. TOR Mitch Marner scored
Penalties (4)
- P1 14:24TORRoman Polak: Cross checking2 min
- P1 14:24DALAlexander Radulov: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 9:30DALStephen Johns: Hooking2 min · PPG
- OT 2:10TORMitch Marner: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Nylander won the faceoff against Faksa
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestBenn – Seguin – Ritchie13:41
xG 1.12–0.18 (86%)attempts 19–9goals 2–1
- Spezza – Dickinson – Elie2:33
xG 0.02–0.10 (15%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Roussel – Pitlick – Faksa11:32
xG 0.12–0.36 (25%)attempts 6–12goals 0–0
- Spezza – Radulov – Janmark8:02
xG 0.14–0.39 (27%)attempts 7–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHamhuis – Pateryn17:20
xG 0.52–0.27 (66%)attempts 14–12goals 1–0
- Johns – Lindell3:11
xG 0.08–0.10 (46%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
- Johns – Honka9:31
xG 0.05–0.47 (10%)attempts 4–10goals 0–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestvan Riemsdyk – Bozak – Brown11:18
xG 1.52–0.18 (89%)attempts 14–7goals 2–0
- Marleau – Hyman – Nylander4:04
xG 0.36–0.04 (91%)attempts 9–3goals 0–1
- Hyman – Nylander – Marner5:36
xG 0.08–0.06 (56%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Komarov – Kadri – Marner3:53
xG 0.04–0.06 (40%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGardiner – Dermott3:45
xG 0.83–0.00 (100%)attempts 10–0goals 1–0
- Carrick – Dermott12:45
xG 0.91–0.22 (81%)attempts 10–10goals 1–1
- Polak – Rielly2:17
xG 0.10–0.05 (65%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 73% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).