Mon, Mar 26, 2018·Air Canada Centre, Toronto
Buffalo Sabres 3, Toronto Maple Leafs 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 87% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 17 | 011 | 29 | 327 |
| TOR | 014 | 215 | 012 | 241 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:23BUFJack EichelAssists: Zemgus Girgensons · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–0
- P2 17:31TORNazem KadriAssists: Mitch Marner, Patrick Marleau · Snap, 0.13 xG1–1
- P2 18:42TORPatrick MarleauPPAssists: Auston Matthews, Jake Gardiner · Wrist, 0.19 xG1–2
- P3 7:56BUFCasey NelsonAssists: Kyle Okposo, Johan Larsson · Slap, 0.05 xG2–2
- P3 9:37BUFJack EichelGWGAssists: Jason Pominville, Zemgus Girgensons · Backhand, 0.07 xG3–2
Penalties (1)
- P2 17:36BUFJason Pominville: High sticking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00O'Reilly won the faceoff against Kadri
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestPouliot – Baptiste – Rodrigues8:09
xG 0.38–0.14 (72%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Okposo – Larsson – Wilson7:03
xG 0.26–0.25 (51%)attempts 6–5goals 1–0
- Okposo – O'Reilly – Wilson5:03
xG 0.15–0.40 (27%)attempts 3–10goals 0–0
- O'Reilly – Nolan – Reinhart4:26
xG 0.00–0.39 (0%)attempts 0–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Falk – Beaulieu11:13
xG 0.67–0.64 (51%)attempts 11–13goals 0–0
- Falk – Ristolainen2:01
xG 0.00–0.30 (0%)attempts 0–6goals 0–0
- Scandella – Nelson19:33
xG 0.41–0.92 (31%)attempts 9–23goals 1–1
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestMarleau – Kadri – Marner13:56
xG 0.66–0.15 (82%)attempts 16–5goals 1–0
- van Riemsdyk – Bozak – Brown11:55
xG 0.78–0.45 (64%)attempts 18–9goals 0–0
- Plekanec – Johnsson – Kapanen10:01
xG 0.89–0.56 (61%)attempts 11–10goals 0–2
- Hyman – Nylander – Matthews13:08
xG 1.10–0.85 (56%)attempts 23–14goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestGardiner – Zaitsev18:00
xG 1.25–0.62 (67%)attempts 21–12goals 0–2
- Hainsey – Rielly15:14
xG 1.35–0.82 (62%)attempts 19–14goals 1–0
- Polak – Dermott14:27
xG 0.97–0.61 (61%)attempts 24–11goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 87% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).