Mon, Apr 2, 2018·Air Canada Centre, Toronto
Buffalo Sabres 2, Toronto Maple Leafs 5
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 09 | 110 | 115 | 234 |
| TOR | 112 | 315 | 19 | 536 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:44TORAndreas JohnssonAssists: Tomas Plekanec, Roman Polak · Tip-in, 0.12 xG0–1
- P2 2:27BUFSam ReinhartPPAssists: Rasmus Ristolainen, Ryan O'Reilly · Tip-in, 0.19 xG1–1
- P2 5:01TORAuston MatthewsPPAssists: Morgan Rielly, Andreas Johnsson · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–2
- P2 7:39TORWilliam NylanderGWGAssists: Auston Matthews · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–3
- P2 10:32TORWilliam NylanderAssists: Zach Hyman · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–4
- P3 2:56BUFJason PominvillePPAssists: Nick Baptiste, Marco Scandella · Wrist, 0.36 xG2–4
- P3 6:29TORAuston MatthewsPPAssists: William Nylander, Jake Gardiner · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–5
Penalties (7)
- P1 7:24BUFMarco Scandella: High sticking2 min
- P1 13:11TORRoman Polak: High sticking2 min
- P1 19:09TORRoman Polak: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
- P2 3:59BUFJustin Falk: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 11:13TORNazem Kadri: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 0:59TORNikita Zaitsev: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P3 5:44BUFCasey Mittelstadt: High sticking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00O'Reilly won the faceoff against Matthews
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestPominville – Girgensons – Eichel10:06
xG 0.36–0.30 (55%)attempts 14–5goals 0–0
- Okposo – Rodrigues – Mittelstadt8:55
xG 0.23–0.18 (56%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
- O'Reilly – Wilson – Reinhart10:38
xG 0.27–0.31 (47%)attempts 13–5goals 0–1
- Pouliot – Larsson – Baptiste5:12
xG 0.31–0.47 (40%)attempts 8–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestFalk – Nelson16:09
xG 0.65–0.30 (68%)attempts 21–11goals 0–0
- Tennyson – Nelson2:25
xG 0.05–0.27 (15%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Gorges – Tennyson10:14
xG 0.18–0.42 (30%)attempts 6–13goals 0–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestHyman – Nylander – Matthews12:12
xG 0.87–0.32 (73%)attempts 11–12goals 2–0
- Plekanec – Martin – Johnsson7:41
xG 0.35–0.18 (66%)attempts 8–9goals 1–0
- Marleau – Kadri – Marner10:39
xG 0.41–0.26 (62%)attempts 7–11goals 0–0
- van Riemsdyk – Bozak – Brown10:10
xG 0.28–0.38 (43%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHainsey – Zaitsev11:33
xG 0.82–0.22 (79%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
- Polak – Gardiner15:02
xG 0.79–0.51 (61%)attempts 13–19goals 3–0
- Gardiner – Rielly2:26
xG 0.20–0.23 (47%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).