Tue, Apr 3, 2018·Centre Bell, Montreal
Winnipeg Jets 5, Montréal Canadiens 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WPG | 210 | 18 | 111 | 13 | 532 |
| MTL | 010 | 114 | 314 | 02 | 440 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:25WPGPatrik LainePPAssists: Dustin Byfuglien, Kyle Connor · Slap, 0.04 xG1–0
- P1 14:19WPGNikolaj EhlersAssists: Paul Stastny · Wrist, 0.08 xG2–0
- P2 15:58WPGJack RoslovicAssists: Tucker Poolman · Snap, 0.05 xG3–0
- P2 19:00MTLArtturi LehkonenAssists: Alex Galchenyuk · Wrist, 0.12 xG3–1
- P3 3:19MTLPaul ByronAssists: Brendan Gallagher, Jonathan Drouin · Wrist, 0.29 xG3–2
- P3 10:15MTLKerby RychelAssists: Jeff Petry · Tip-in, 0.01 xG3–3
- P3 10:39WPGSami NikuAssists: Kyle Connor, Andrew Copp · Wrist, 0.12 xG4–3
- P3 18:18MTLAlex GalchenyukPPAssists: David Schlemko, Jeff Petry · Wrist, 0.06 xG4–4
- OT 3:00WPGKyle ConnorGWGAssists: Jack Roslovic, Tyler Myers · Snap, 0.22 xG5–4
Penalties (12)
- P1 2:11MTLBrett Lernout: Holding2 min
- P1 11:47MTLLogan Shaw: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P1 19:03WPGJoel Armia: Interference2 min
- P2 5:20WPGDustin Byfuglien: Tripping2 min
- P2 11:06WPGBrandon Tanev: Roughing2 min
- P2 11:06MTLKerby Rychel: Roughing2 min
- P2 12:18WPGMathieu Perreault: Slashing2 min
- P3 4:47WPGTyler Myers: Boarding2 min
- P3 4:47WPGTyler Myers: Roughing2 min
- P3 4:47MTLMichael McCarron: Roughing2 min
- P3 17:47WPGDustin Byfuglien: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 18:18WPGDustin Byfuglien: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00de la Rose won the faceoff against Little
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Winnipeg Jets
Forward lines
- Little – Perreault – Armia10:44
xG 0.18–0.20 (48%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Matthias – Dano – Tanev5:44
xG 0.14–0.27 (34%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
- Copp – Connor – Roslovic10:05
xG 0.39–0.71 (36%)attempts 8–9goals 2–1
- Stastny – Ehlers – Laine13:33
xG 0.31–1.00 (24%)attempts 10–20goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- bestMyers – Chiarot13:52
xG 0.51–0.23 (69%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
- Byfuglien – Morrow3:09
xG 0.00–0.25 (0%)attempts 0–9goals 0–0
- Morrow – Poolman13:21
xG 0.18–0.64 (22%)attempts 10–15goals 0–0
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestGalchenyuk – de la Rose – Lehkonen11:44
xG 0.98–0.20 (83%)attempts 16–8goals 1–1
- Byron – Gallagher – Drouin9:56
xG 0.68–0.05 (93%)attempts 13–2goals 1–0
- Deslauriers – Shaw – Carr2:12
xG 0.04–0.09 (33%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Deslauriers – McCarron – Carr6:44
xG 0.06–0.15 (27%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPetry – Schlemko11:27
xG 0.96–0.38 (72%)attempts 20–9goals 2–1
- Alzner – Juulsen12:19
xG 0.59–0.41 (59%)attempts 9–10goals 1–1
- Schlemko – Reilly3:04
xG 0.03–0.01 (71%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it WPG. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − WPG), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).