Wed, Apr 4, 2018·KeyBank Center, Buffalo
Ottawa Senators 4, Buffalo Sabres 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 210 | 114 | 18 | 432 |
| BUF | 114 | 17 | 013 | 234 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:30BUFRyan O'ReillyAssists: Scott Wilson, Sam Reinhart · Backhand, 0.11 xG0–1
- P1 2:56OTTMax McCormickAssists: Mark Borowiecki, Alexandre Burrows · Tip-in, 0.09 xG1–1
- P1 6:10OTTMatt DucheneUnassisted · Slap, 0.08 xG2–1
- P2 3:21OTTRyan DzingelGWGAssists: Filip Chlapik, Christian Wolanin · Wrist, 0.15 xG3–1
- P2 16:41BUFKyle OkposoAssists: Casey Mittelstadt, Evan Rodrigues · Snap, 0.07 xG3–2
- P3 19:21OTTAlexandre BurrowsENAssists: Ryan Dzingel · Backhand, 0.62 xG4–2
Penalties (4)
- P1 17:08OTTMatt Duchene: Holding2 min
- P2 1:17BUFMarco Scandella: Tripping2 min
- P2 6:42OTTBen Harpur: Cross checking2 min
- P3 11:22OTTCody Ceci: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Duchene won the faceoff against Eichel
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestSmith – Paajarvi – Dzingel3:22
xG 0.47–0.01 (98%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Burrows – McCormick – Chlapik4:09
xG 0.18–0.09 (67%)attempts 4–3goals 1–0
- Pyatt – Smith – Paajarvi6:41
xG 0.17–0.14 (53%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Ryan – Pyatt – Pageau2:25
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Ceci – Wolanin15:01
xG 1.05–1.03 (51%)attempts 14–15goals 1–0
- Borowiecki – Chabot10:39
xG 0.37–0.35 (51%)attempts 5–11goals 1–1
- Borowiecki – Ceci2:26
xG 0.02–0.02 (46%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestO'Reilly – Wilson – Reinhart12:06
xG 1.00–0.38 (73%)attempts 16–5goals 1–1
- Okposo – Rodrigues – Nylander7:47
xG 0.36–0.09 (80%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Pominville – Eichel – Mittelstadt9:16
xG 0.24–0.15 (62%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Nolan – Larsson – Baptiste5:48
xG 0.26–0.33 (44%)attempts 9–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestScandella – Ristolainen15:52
xG 1.14–0.27 (81%)attempts 18–7goals 2–1
- Guhle – Nelson17:11
xG 0.44–0.36 (55%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Falk – Beaulieu11:38
xG 0.37–0.88 (30%)attempts 13–14goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Ottawa Senators win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).