Thu, Oct 4, 2018·PPG Paints Arena, Pittsburgh
Washington Capitals 6, Pittsburgh Penguins 7 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 80% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 310 | 116 | 210 | 00 | 636 |
| PIT | 25 | 323 | 111 | 12 | 741 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:49PITJamie OleksiakAssists: Evgeni Malkin, Phil Kessel · Snap, 0.04 xG0–1
- P1 3:30WSHJakub VranaAssists: Nicklas Backstrom, T.J. Oshie · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–1
- P1 4:18WSHBrooks OrpikUnassisted · Slap, 0.03 xG2–1
- P1 7:27PITJake GuentzelPPAssists: Daniel Sprong, Justin Schultz · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–2
- P1 8:00WSHAlex OvechkinAssists: Christian Djoos, Evgeny Kuznetsov · Tip-in, 0.11 xG3–2
- P2 0:30PITKris LetangAssists: Sidney Crosby, Brian Dumoulin · Snap, 0.08 xG3–3
- P2 3:54WSHJohn CarlsonAssists: Brett Connolly · Snap, 0.08 xG4–3
- P2 15:09PITJake GuentzelAssists: Justin Schultz, Patric Hornqvist · Tip-in, 0.05 xG4–4
- P2 16:58PITDerick BrassardAssists: Dominik Simon, Brian Dumoulin · Backhand, 0.23 xG4–5
- P3 2:45PITEvgeni MalkinAssists: Kris Letang, Sidney Crosby · Wrist, 0.08 xG4–6
- P3 13:01WSHT.J. OshieUnassisted · Snap, 0.08 xG5–6
- P3 13:22WSHT.J. OshieAssists: John Carlson · Tip-in, 0.05 xG6–6
- OT 1:20PITKris LetangPPGWGAssists: Evgeni Malkin, Phil Kessel · Slap, 0.14 xG6–7
Penalties (8)
- P1 5:47WSHMatt Niskanen: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 18:11PITCarl Hagelin: Interference2 min
- P2 4:13PITPhil Kessel: Slashing2 min
- P2 7:24WSHLars Eller: Hooking2 min
- P3 0:39WSHBrett Connolly: Tripping2 min
- P3 3:53WSHMadison Bowey: Hooking2 min
- P3 8:40WSHJakub Vrana: Slashing2 min
- OT 0:19WSHEvgeny Kuznetsov: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backstrom won the faceoff against Crosby
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestDowd – Smith-Pelly – Walker5:21
xG 0.35–0.26 (57%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Ovechkin – Kuznetsov – Connolly12:57
xG 0.76–1.14 (40%)attempts 11–14goals 2–1
- Eller – Stephenson – Burakovsky6:45
xG 0.07–0.49 (12%)attempts 2–10goals 0–1
- Oshie – Backstrom – Vrana12:16
xG 0.59–1.20 (33%)attempts 16–16goals 3–1
Defence pairs
- Orpik – Carlson2:25
xG 0.08–0.28 (22%)attempts 1–6goals 0–0
- Carlson – Djoos15:30
xG 0.57–0.87 (39%)attempts 13–13goals 3–1
- Niskanen – Orlov15:51
xG 0.95–1.42 (40%)attempts 18–20goals 0–3
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestBrassard – Rust – Simon7:35
xG 0.86–0.13 (87%)attempts 14–3goals 1–1
- Crosby – Hornqvist – Guentzel13:04
xG 1.01–0.56 (64%)attempts 20–10goals 2–1
- Cullen – Sheahan – Rust4:36
xG 0.43–0.24 (64%)attempts 6–6goals 0–1
- Malkin – Kessel – Hagelin12:37
xG 0.80–0.71 (53%)attempts 11–14goals 1–2
Defence pairs
- bestLetang – Dumoulin14:18
xG 1.84–0.71 (72%)attempts 23–17goals 2–3
- Johnson – Maatta15:28
xG 0.64–0.41 (61%)attempts 13–10goals 0–1
- Schultz – Oleksiak11:48
xG 0.51–0.77 (40%)attempts 11–12goals 2–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 80% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).