Sat, Oct 6, 2018·Scotiabank Arena, Toronto
Ottawa Senators 5, Toronto Maple Leafs 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTT | 16 | 210 | 28 | 524 |
| TOR | 012 | 312 | 013 | 337 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 9:42OTTDylan DeMeloAssists: Zack Smith, Thomas Chabot · Snap, 0.08 xG1–0
- P2 0:29TORMorgan RiellyAssists: Mitch Marner, Zach Hyman · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–1
- P2 1:10TORAuston MatthewsAssists: Patrick Marleau, Tyler Ennis · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–2
- P2 3:49OTTThomas ChabotAssists: Mikkel Boedker, Zack Smith · Snap, 0.22 xG2–2
- P2 4:27OTTChris TierneyAssists: Ryan Dzingel · Snap, 0.09 xG3–2
- P2 18:20TORMitch MarnerPPAssists: Auston Matthews, Morgan Rielly · Wrist, 0.12 xG3–3
- P3 1:42OTTThomas ChabotGWGAssists: Bobby Ryan, Craig Anderson · Snap, 0.21 xG4–3
- P3 19:35OTTMark StoneENAssists: Matt Duchene · Snap, 0.58 xG5–3
Penalties (5)
- P1 4:27TORJosh Leivo: Slashing2 min
- P1 14:13OTTChris Wideman: Penalty shot slash on breakaway0 min
- P2 11:36OTTCody Ceci: Hooking2 min
- P2 18:00OTTRyan Dzingel: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 8:23TORPar Lindholm: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Tavares won the faceoff against Smith
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestSmith – Boedker – Stone10:37
xG 0.55–0.38 (59%)attempts 12–11goals 2–1
- Duchene – Paajarvi – Dzingel2:59
xG 0.11–0.13 (45%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Ryan – Tierney – Formenton9:14
xG 0.45–0.48 (49%)attempts 4–14goals 1–0
- Pyatt – Carey – Paajarvi3:57
xG 0.00–0.11 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestDeMelo – Chabot13:17
xG 1.26–0.35 (78%)attempts 15–12goals 4–0
- Borowiecki – Ceci2:04
xG 0.00–0.06 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
- Borowiecki – Wideman10:55
xG 0.30–0.77 (28%)attempts 6–14goals 0–1
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestTavares – Hyman – Marner13:44
xG 0.80–0.53 (60%)attempts 24–9goals 1–0
- Marleau – Ennis – Matthews12:04
xG 0.78–0.53 (59%)attempts 15–9goals 1–1
- Johnsson – Kapanen – Lindholm6:44
xG 0.44–0.23 (66%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
- Kadri – Leivo – Brown7:36
xG 0.43–0.43 (50%)attempts 8–6goals 0–3
Defence pairs
- bestHainsey – Rielly12:37
xG 0.77–0.04 (95%)attempts 16–6goals 1–0
- Gardiner – Zaitsev15:39
xG 1.15–1.01 (53%)attempts 24–13goals 1–2
- Dermott – Ozhiganov10:13
xG 0.49–0.44 (52%)attempts 10–4goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it OTT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Toronto Maple Leafs win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − OTT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).