Thu, Oct 11, 2018·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Chicago Blackhawks 3, Minnesota Wild 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 211 | 09 | 18 | 02 | 330 |
| MIN | 016 | 212 | 115 | 13 | 446 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:07CHIAlex DeBrincatAssists: Jonathan Toews, Jan Rutta · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–0
- P1 12:50CHIDominik KahunAssists: Jonathan Toews, Alex DeBrincat · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–0
- P2 13:19MINEric StaalAssists: Jason Zucker, Ryan Suter · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–1
- P2 19:57MINJason ZuckerAssists: Eric Staal, Jordan Greenway · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–2
- P3 2:29CHIAlex DeBrincatPPAssists: Patrick Kane · Slap, 0.17 xG3–2
- P3 19:37MINRyan SuterSHAssists: Zach Parise, Eric Staal · Wrist, 0.20 xG3–3
- OT 3:25MINJason ZuckerGWGAssists: Zach Parise, Ryan Suter · Backhand, 0.25 xG3–4
Penalties (7)
- P1 6:15MINJared Spurgeon: Interference2 min
- P1 8:40CHIErik Gustafsson: Holding2 min
- P1 8:49MINMikko Koivu: Slashing2 min
- P2 15:30MINJordan Greenway: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 2:19MINEric Fehr: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 12:00CHINick Schmaltz: Interference2 min
- P3 18:43MINMikael Granlund: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Koivu won the faceoff against Toews
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestToews – DeBrincat – Kahun10:44
xG 0.30–0.24 (56%)attempts 10–7goals 1–0
- Kunitz – Anisimov – Fortin8:04
xG 0.35–0.31 (53%)attempts 8–8goals 0–1
- Kruger – Hayden – Kampf9:59
xG 0.02–0.22 (8%)attempts 5–16goals 0–0
- Kane – Saad – Schmaltz13:29
xG 0.49–1.68 (23%)attempts 11–20goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Keith – Seabrook2:03
xG 0.04–0.17 (20%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Seabrook – Gustafsson15:20
xG 0.67–1.18 (36%)attempts 11–21goals 1–0
- Manning – Rutta14:17
xG 0.17–0.74 (19%)attempts 8–17goals 0–1
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestCoyle – Niederreiter – Greenway2:21
xG 0.72–0.11 (87%)attempts 10–2goals 0–1
- Staal – Zucker – Greenway10:37
xG 0.48–0.16 (75%)attempts 9–2goals 1–0
- Staal – Zucker – Eriksson Ek4:03
xG 0.34–0.10 (78%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
- Coyle – Niederreiter – Eriksson Ek4:56
xG 0.31–0.07 (82%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Dumba20:05
xG 2.05–0.39 (84%)attempts 36–12goals 2–0
- Spurgeon – Brodin16:38
xG 1.24–0.73 (63%)attempts 22–13goals 0–0
- Pateryn – Seeler10:14
xG 0.06–0.47 (11%)attempts 4–14goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).