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Ice Lab

Sat, Oct 13, 2018·Amalie Arena, Tampa

Columbus Blue Jackets 2, Tampa Bay Lightning 8

Away

Columbus Blue Jackets

2

Final

Home

Tampa Bay Lightning

8

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 60% of the time.

TBL winsCBJ wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
CBJ0921607232
TBL31215414831

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 1:00TBLVictor HedmanAssists: Tyler Johnson, Nikita Kucherov · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–1
  2. P1 11:17TBLCedric PaquetteAssists: Yanni Gourde · Wrist, 0.11 xG0–2
  3. P1 18:37TBLYanni GourdePPGWGAssists: Mikhail Sergachev, Tyler Johnson · Wrist, 0.29 xG0–3
  4. P2 8:14CBJJosh AndersonAssists: Alexander Wennberg, Ryan Murray · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–3
  5. P2 15:51CBJOliver BjorkstrandUnassisted · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–3
  6. P2 19:15TBLBrayden PointUnassisted · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–4
  7. P3 1:40TBLBrayden PointPPAssists: J.T. Miller, Mikhail Sergachev · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–5
  8. P3 7:12TBLAlex KillornPPAssists: Steven Stamkos, J.T. Miller · Wrist, 0.15 xG2–6
  9. P3 13:02TBLNikita KucherovAssists: Ondrej Palat, Braydon Coburn · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–7
  10. P3 19:59TBLJ.T. MillerPPAssists: Brayden Point, Anton Stralman · Wrist, 0.16 xG2–8
Penalties (14)
  1. P1 3:06CBJPierre-Luc Dubois: Hooking2 min
  2. P1 9:14TBLBrayden Point: Slashing2 min
  3. P1 17:03CBJLukas Sedlak: Holding2 min · PPG
  4. P2 1:10TBLVictor Hedman: High sticking2 min
  5. P2 1:10TBLVictor Hedman: High sticking2 min
  6. P2 11:15TBLVictor Hedman: Holding2 min
  7. P2 0:00CBJZach Werenski: Slashing2 min · PPG
  8. P3 3:55TBLNikita Kucherov: Holding2 min
  9. P3 6:58CBJCam Atkinson: Hooking2 min · PPG
  10. P3 9:22CBJArtemi Panarin: Hooking2 min
  11. P3 17:56CBJPierre-Luc Dubois: Roughing2 min
  12. P3 17:56TBLYanni Gourde: Roughing2 min
  13. P3 17:56CBJPierre-Luc Dubois: Roughing2 min
  14. P3 19:24CBJDavid Savard: Slashing2 min · PPG

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

CBJ00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0TBL
46% to win54% to win
← CBJ attackTBL attack →
  1. P1 20:00Gourde won the faceoff against Dubois
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

CBJTBL
32Shots on goal31
2.3Expected goals2.9
57Shot attempts56
31Faceoffs won30
5Power plays7
16Penalty minutes12
20Hits22
17Blocked shots12
7Giveaways10
6Takeaways11

Line combinations that worked

Model-based

Each team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.

Columbus Blue Jackets

Forward lines

  1. bestAtkinson – Panarin – Dubois5:00

    xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0

  2. Nash – Jenner – Bjorkstrand3:36

    xG 0.10–0.03 (76%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0

  3. Atkinson – Wennberg – Panarin2:12

    xG 0.08–0.03 (73%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0

  4. Nash – Jenner – Anderson5:37

    xG 0.19–0.21 (47%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0

Defence pairs

  1. bestMurray – Nutivaara11:17

    xG 0.56–0.19 (75%)attempts 13–5goals 2–2

  2. Savard – Nutivaara2:12

    xG 0.00–0.00 (0%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0

  3. Clendening – Harrington4:35

    xG 0.02–0.09 (19%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0

Tampa Bay Lightning

Forward lines

  1. bestJohnson – Palat – Kucherov8:41

    xG 0.27–0.14 (66%)attempts 8–4goals 2–0

  2. Miller – Paquette – Erne6:48

    xG 0.33–0.21 (61%)attempts 11–6goals 0–1

  3. Stamkos – Gourde – Point10:35

    xG 0.08–0.09 (47%)attempts 4–5goals 1–0

  4. Killorn – Joseph – Cirelli7:22

    xG 0.13–0.20 (39%)attempts 7–5goals 0–0

Defence pairs

  1. bestCoburn – Sergachev10:08

    xG 0.34–0.17 (67%)attempts 11–6goals 1–0

  2. Girardi – Hedman9:54

    xG 0.24–0.31 (44%)attempts 7–9goals 2–1

  3. Stralman – McDonagh13:38

    xG 0.28–0.42 (40%)attempts 11–10goals 0–1

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

TBL 2.9 xGCBJ 2.3 xG
0123P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

TBLCBJ

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it CBJ. Dots are goals.

Excitement 68/100 · #405 of 1271 this seasonSwing 0.94 · 7 goals in reach · 2-goal lead cutComeback index 54% (winner's lowest chance)
CBJ 100%5050%50TBL 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +14 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 60% of the time.

TBL winsCBJ wins

Simulated goal difference (TBL − CBJ), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).